Breaking up a union is harder than you think.
There has been a recent wave of secessionist talk in the Golden State, fueled by fears that a Trump victory in the 2024 presidential election could put liberal California in the crosshairs of a vindictive autocrat.
Whatever your view on the pros and cons of this potential separation from the European Union, idle speculation is no match for the cold, unforgiving reality. Simply put, secession requires more than just wearing a California Republic T-shirt.
As the American Civil War painfully reminds us, secession is fateful, fraught, and fraught with dangers – from economic collapse to armed conflict – not to mention illegal. The Supreme Court ruled in 1869 that no state could unilaterally leave the Union.
Moreover, a constitutional amendment approving the exit of any state from the Union would require the approval of three-quarters of the state legislatures, which approval would likely not be achieved.
Even without the illegitimacy and futility, for secession to succeed, the thorny bureaucratic and conceptual details must be studied and overcome.
In short, if Californians aspire to national secession and contemplate the birth of a new nation, even in theory, they had better have a detailed plan to review.
To illustrate this point, improbable as it may seem, let us assume that all legal barriers to secession have been removed, that ideas of secession have matured from cocktail chatter to public demand, and that a constitutional amendment permits California to withdraw from the Union. It is close to being approved by a majority of the state legislatures.
If Californians reach that point, here are three of the many key questions that serious secessionists would have already answered before this hypothetical turning point unfolded.
Should the establishment of the Republic of California require a plebiscite?
There's no getting around the fact that California voters would have to support secession. The solution cannot be merely a mandate or a declaration.
