Dow Jones futures were little changed Monday night, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were slightly lower. Tesla vehicles are expected to be delivered as early as Tuesday, with Chinese electric vehicle rival BYD reporting booming sales on Monday.
X
The stock market is in a strong position to start 2024 after the Nasdaq's best performance in 20 years. The strong market rally has been underway since the end of October, with the major indexes posting a nine-week winning streak. The S&P 500 is below its all-time highs.
There could be some volatility in early January, as volume returns and some tax selling take place. So investors may want to see how much impact this has. But they should look for new buying opportunities and review previous deals.
Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Free market (Millie), Celsius Holding (Sila) and Eli Lilly (LLY) are all trading near buy points or early entries.
Dow jones futures today
Dow Jones futures were flat versus fair value. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%.
US stock markets were closed on Monday for New Year's Day.
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 3.88%.
Crude oil futures rose 1%.
China's official manufacturing index fell 0.4 points in December to 49, the third straight month below the neutral 50 level and the lowest since June, which was also 49.0. Economists expected 49.5. The services sector index rose 0.2 points to 50.4, slightly below views of 50.5.
Remember, an overnight move in Dow Jones futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Delivery of electric vehicles
Chinese electric car and battery giant BYD BYDDF sold a record 341,043 electric vehicles in December, up 45% from a year earlier versus 13% higher than the 301,903 vehicles in November. Full-year sales of 3,024,417 exceeded BYD's target of three million vehicles, including hybrids.
BYD's passenger sales of all-battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were 190,754 vehicles in December, rising to 526,409 in the fourth quarter. It should top easily Tesla (TSLA), which will release fourth-quarter production and delivery numbers on January 2. Tesla is expected to exceed full-year delivery expectations of 1.8 million electric vehicles, with record fourth-quarter sales of just over 480,000.
Lee Otto (LI) reported a record high of 50,353 electric vehicles in December, an increase of 137% compared to the previous year and 23% compared to November. It sold 131,805 cars in the fourth quarter, above the expected range, with full-year deliveries up 182% to 376,030 cars.
New NIO delivered 18,012 electric vehicles in December and 50,045 vehicles in the fourth quarter, exceeding its fourth-quarter target of 47,000 to 49,000 vehicles.
XPeng XPEV deliveries hit a record 20,155 vehicles in December, just over 20,000 electric vehicles for the third month in a row. Deliveries in the fourth quarter were 60,158, toward the low end of the forecast range.
American electric car startup Rivian (RIVN) is likely to report quarterly production and delivery data on Tuesday. The maker of small electric cars, SUVs and delivery vans released such statistics on the first market day after the end of the quarter.
Tesla is approaching a buy point, while RIVN stock arguably has a handle. Li Auto stock is all about strong entry points. BYD, XPeng and Nio stocks need some repair work.
Tesla, Microsoft, and Nvidia stocks are on the IBD Leaderboard. MSFT stock is on IBD's list of long-term leaders. Nvidia, Celsius, MercadoLibre and Li Auto are in the IBD 50. MELI stock is in the IBD Big Cap 20. Nvidia was the IBD Stock of the Day on Friday.
The video embedded in this article discusses the market rally, looking to the new year and analysis of Nvidia, MercadoLibre, and CELH stocks.
Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and the market on IBD Live
Stock market pool
The stock market rally marked a relatively quiet end to a strong year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8% in stock market trading last week. The S&P 500 index advanced 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 index fell 0.3%.
Over the course of the year, the Dow Jones is up 13.7% and the S&P 500 is up 24.2%. The Nasdaq rose 43.4%, its best performance since 2003.
Market breadth has improved significantly in the past two months. Chip, software and technology giants are still heavily represented among blue-chip stocks, but industrial, construction, financial, travel and transportation and some medical plays are also present.
Sentiment indicators are showing a high upward trend. The Nasdaq is 6.9% above its 50-day line, down from where it was a few days ago. But it won't take much to see the combination look extended again.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 3.86% during the week, after falling to a five-month low on Wednesday. Over the course of the year, the yield rose by 3 basis points, but fell from 5% in late October.
U.S. crude oil futures fell 2.6% to $71.65 a barrel last week, or 10.7% for the year.
Stock Market Forecast 2024: A soft landing may not bring the gains you expect
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell 0.45% last week, with Microsoft shares being a major component. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 0.9%. Nvidia stock is easily the #1 stock in SMH.
Reflecting more speculative stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 1.2% last week and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) closed flat. TSLA stock remains a key component across Ark Invest's ETFs.
The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining Fund (XME) fell 1.55% last week. The Global The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) fell 1.6%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) rose less than 0.1%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 1.3%.
Healthcare Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) rose 1%, with LLY shares in the lead. The Select Industrial Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) advanced 0.8%.
The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 0.7%.
These giants have had a huge year and are in a prime position heading into 2024
Stocks near buy points
Nvidia stock rose 1.4% to 495.22 last week. The AI segment leader is located near a 505.48 buy point from a flat base that essentially formed in the buy zone of a double bottom base. NVDA stock led the S&P 500 in 2023, more than tripling in value to more than $1.2 trillion. But with earnings soaring and a forward P/E ratio of just 26, Nvidia is arguably cheap.
Microsoft stock rose 0.4% to 376.04, continuing a long streak of tight weekly closes within the buy zone of the cup base. A flat base has now formed with a buy point of 384.30, according to MarketSmith analysis. Earnings and sales growth have accelerated over the past three quarters.
MELI shares have been consolidating over the past few weeks. Like a number of blue-chip stocks with strong gains, it has found support around the 21-day line recently. Shares fell 1.1% to 1,571.54 last week. Technically, MercadoLibre stock has a three-week tight pattern with a buy point of 1,653.42. But investors can use the strong move from the 21 days, perhaps around 1600, as a place to enter. MELI stock is on track for a flat base in another week. This would allow the fast-rising 50-day line to close the gap further. MercadoLibre's profits reached triple digits, with revenue growth rising to 40% in the third quarter.
CELH stock jumped nearly 9% last week to 54.52, bouncing back above its 50-day line. The energy drink giant has a consolidated buy point of 68.95, with an early entry point of 62.99. Investors can use a move above the trend line, using Thursday's high of 56.63 as a specific strong buy point. CELH stock has had a pattern of bouncing from the 50-day line straight up to consolidation highs. After Celsius stock has declined in recent months as the broader market rebounded, its relative strength line has lagged, but only after a big wave.
Hot percentage profits and sales.
Eli Lilly stock rose 2.2% to 582.92 during the week, hitting resistance at the 50-day line, but is just reclaiming the 10-week line. LLY stock has a 629.97 buy point with a flat base. But investors can use a decisive move above the 50-day line, which would also break the trend line, as an early entry. Level 600 was also a key area for the weight loss drug giant. As with Celsius, Lilly stock's RS line has weakened in the past few months after a strong uptrend.
Revenue growth has accelerated strongly over the past two quarters, and Lilly's profits are expected to rise in 2024.
Five tech leaders pause bullishly. Are you ready to run again in 2024?
What are you doing now
After a strong year, the stock market enters 2024 on sound footing, although stocks occasionally falter in January. Leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and MercadoLibre are creating new buying opportunities.
So, you'll need to run monitors, create your own watchlists, and stream them onto those charts.
It's also a good idea to study your trades for 2023. What are your best and worst trades? What big winners were missed or eliminated early? Try to figure out how to grab more of the better performing companies and retain them while minimizing losers and losses. This might mean following your rules better and doing your homework. Or it may mean that you need to adjust your rules or investing style.
Don't try to live up to or underestimate last year's performance. Focus on making the best decisions in the moment.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay on top of market trends and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarsonthreads at @edcarson1971 and Bluesky at @edcarson.bsky.social for stock market updates and more.
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