As upbeat music blared inside the stadium in Semarang, Prabowo Subianto, the front-runner in Indonesia's presidential election, moved his powerful 72-year-old body across the stage, delighting thousands of gathered supporters.
Once an authoritarian: Prabowaw Subianto, the former Indonesian army general (left), seeks a rebrand. Young people who have little memory of the past are now imitating his distinctive dance moves.credit: Screengrab/Tribun Network
The former general's desire to dance during the rally in the Central Java capital was not spontaneous.
He's rolled out the moves at other campaign events and clips of them have gone viral on social media, where copycats have been posted.
With Indonesia set to choose its next leader on February 14, Subianto's exploits have not only turned him into a phenomenon on the influential internet platform TikTok, making him almost inexplicably trendy, but have also coincided with his overwhelming lead in the polls. .
In two of the last five polls, his ticket has received close to 50% support, which, if repeated on Election Day, would ensure he would win a majority and avoid the need for a runoff between the top two candidates in the middle of the year.
Having the son of outgoing president Joko Widodo as his deputy allowed him to follow in the footsteps of the leader known as Jokowi, capitalizing on the latter's enduring popularity.
But Subianto has benefited from a very deliberate public makeover, reshaping himself as a likable, serious figure rather than a podium flamboyant figure with a dark military history who faced Widodo twice and lost.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo (left) and opposition leader Prabowo Subianto at the latter's estate in 2016.credit: Presidential Palace
Ian Wilson, an expert on Indonesian politics at Murdoch University's Indo-Pacific Research Centre, said: “In 2014, he entered the stadium on a horse wearing fake military boots and clothing and, as many people pointed out at the time, he looked very much like Indonesia's Mussolini.” “. center.
“In 2019, he was on stage with the Islamists, so he was adopting a hardline stance at the time. Both tactics failed for him, so I think it's a pretty obvious strategy to soften his image, to appear as a sort of benign uncle character, likable with a sense of humor and so on.
Subianto is hoping to be third lucky in next month's elections.credit: Bloomberg
With Widodo unable to run in the election and his presidential ambitions thwarted by Indonesia's two-term limit, this could finally be Subianto's moment, as his team pulls out all the stops.
In Jakarta, huge billboards covering the entire sides of buildings show cartoon images of him and vice-presidential candidate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Widodo's eldest son.
He's a famous animal lover, so Instagram pages for Subianto's cats have sprung up. Electoral game plan known as com. geoywhich means gentle and wonderful, has flown.
This ploy, aided by a pairing with the younger son of his old rival, aims to win the votes of younger voters. About half of the 204 million Indonesians eligible to vote next month are under 40 years old, and their impressions have not been completely shaped by the past.
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It also appears that the reshaping of Subianto's image was intended to deflect attention from his links to the regime of the late dictator Suharto, his former father-in-law. For decades, allegations of human rights abuses followed him while he was commander of the army's feared special forces, Kopassus.
He denied accusations of responsibility for the killings in East Timor and West Papua, but was discharged from the army over another incident – the kidnapping of 22 pro-democracy activists in 1998 in the final days of Suharto's new regime. Thirteen of those who disappeared were never seen again.
Gebran Rakabuming Rakam, the eldest son of President Joko Widodo and mayor of their hometown of Sulu, is Subianto's running mate.credit: Bloomberg
“It's an attempt to break away from the past… 1998 was a big low point for him,” Wilson said. “It's a big weakness. Not that he regrets anything he's done. But he has a real sense of humiliation from that time.”
Subianto lived in exile in Jordan after the fall of Suharto and was unable to enter the United States under Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and the ban was only lifted after Widodo brought his opponent into the fold by appointing him as defense minister in 2013. 2019.
Subianto moved to inoculate himself against any electoral damage from the kidnappings.
In a temporary return to form, he became angry when his human rights record was raised during the first debate last month with the other two presidential candidates, former Jakarta governor and university president Anies Baswedan and former Central Java governor Jangar Pranowo, the son of Jakarta's former president. policeman.
Subianto (center) at the first presidential debate last month with fellow candidates Jangar Pranowo (left) and Anies Baswedan.credit: AP
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Opportunism abounds. Subianto highlighted that he has support even from some reform movement activists who were imprisoned and tortured before the democratic transition a quarter of a century ago.
“I think I am a strong advocate for human rights,” he said during the discussion. “The people who were arrested, the political detainees I was accused of kidnapping, are now in my camp and supporting me. Do not politicize human rights issues.”
Greg Feeley, emeritus professor of Indonesian politics at the Australian National University, said Subianto had completely remade himself politically since joining Widodo's government four years ago.
“He had to adopt a different strategy, he had to stop scaring people, he had to look responsible and like he could work within the system, he had to present an image of a more rounded person, rather than trading on his former military career,” he said. .
As for what kind of president he might be, expectations vary.
Fanatic supporters of President Joko Widodo rallied behind the Subianto-Gebran ticket.credit: GT
At the international level, his performance as defense minister suggests that he will be more assertive than Widodo, who has been a reluctant player on the global stage.
From the Australian perspective, he has developed strong relationships with his ministerial counterparts in Canberra. And the biggest point of tension in relations with Indonesia in the past few years – Australia's plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines through the AUKUS agreement – was more or less plausible from the start.
“The fact that he has a more critical stance towards China would be something that Australian governments might find welcome,” Feeley added.
Given his authoritarian background, the path a Subianto presidency could take in Indonesia is a source of further concern.
Analysts have criticized the democratic decline during Widodo's second term, citing red flags such as the weaponization of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), which had previously been welcomed, and the concern is that the foundations have been laid for further erosion.
Subianto was only able to include Gebran, and by extension Widodo, because of the intervention of another government institution, the Constitutional Court, which controversially relaxed a rule on the minimum age for presidential and vice-presidential aspirants that would have made it 36 years. Ineligible year.
The case was presided over by Widodo's son-in-law, who has since been removed as president of the court by the ethics committee.
Subianto has been chosen as the continuity candidate, pledging to pursue Widodo's move of the capital from Jakarta to Borneo, which will define his legacy, and Feeley believes he will likely work in the same way as the former furniture salesman.
“All indications are that one of the things Prabowo learned from Jokowi is that you can get what you want, you can manipulate the democratic system… and you will achieve what you want to achieve and you will not feel disrespected. The person who was seen as destroying or dismantling Indonesian democracy in some way Dramatic.”
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Wilson isn't so sure. He cites the old political program of Subianto's nationalist Girindra Party to return to the original 1945 constitution.
This would not only enhance the president's power, but would also mean doing away with direct elections and a two-term limit, paving the way for the leader to rule indefinitely.
Any attempt to blow up the system in this way will depend on the composition of the legislature, which voters will also determine on February 14, and the broader appetite for such change.
Wilson expects democratic deterioration to accelerate under Subianto's presidency.
“He is not committed to democracy. Democracy is a means to an end. He said he wanted to be elected.
“He believes he has the right to be president. “He has been relentless in pursuing his obsession… and this is his last chance.”
We will not know whether he has truly matured until he finally wins office. If it doesn't, how quickly can I remove the grainy crust?
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