Unlike what happened in the wake of September 11, the American people have not come together around the legacy of January 6. Trump said he spoke that day to a “loving crowd.” As many as 70 percent of Republican voters believe the 2020 election was stolen. Trump's intolerable injustices are a starting point for his campaign statements.
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Three years later, more Republicans than ever believe that Trump was not responsible for the insurrection, that accounts of violence are exaggerated, and that Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.
Even in the Capitol itself, during a 2022 tour, “January 6 was completely ignored, not even mentioned once on the tour,” a friend reported. “It's like it never happened.”
Trump has been charged with 91 criminal charges, but today he is stronger than ever. He tells his electoral base: “They are not accusing me, they are accusing you.” “I am your warrior. I am your justice.” They trust Trump, and they want him back strong. “And for those who wronged and betrayed, I will retaliate for you.”
Trump is on the cusp of defeating his rivals in the first round of the primary elections that begin this month in Iowa, which puts him within reach of securing his party's presidential nomination by the end of February.
The insurrection at the Capitol – which was a near-fatal blow to the heart of American democracy – is now at the heart of Trump's legal jeopardy. In a trial to be held in Washington, Trump faces charges of conspiring to overturn the elections, obstructing the work of Congress, and depriving people of counting their votes.
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Two states, Colorado and Maine, have found that Trump “engaged” in the insurrection and must, as the Fourteenth Amendment states, be removed from the election ballot. The Supreme Court will decide on that case, in addition to Trump's assertion that he enjoys immunity from prosecution for all the actions he took as president.
If Trump is convicted in the Washington trial, will his voters still be with him next November? Early polls suggest that some of his voters — perhaps as much as 5 percent or more — are unwilling to vote for a convicted felon.
On January 6, 2025, Congress will meet in joint session to count the Electoral College votes and certify the winner. Vice President Kamala Harris, who remains in office until the inauguration on January 20, will assume the presidency.
Will the man who has relentlessly sown division, mistrust, and doubt about American democracy be declared the winner and take the oath – once again – to “preserve, protect, and defend” the Constitution of the United States? Will Trump be able to successfully restore his rebellion?
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the Center for the Study of the United States. He served on the staff of Democrats in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
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