Policy
With only about ten days to go, we will soon see the first 2024 presidential contest with the Iowa caucus.
And according to CNN — yes, CNN — Donald Trump is absolutely killing it.
“CNN DATA CORRESPONDENT: TRUMP” Harry Enten, CNN's chief data correspondent, said Thursday that former President Donald Trump had the strongest poll numbers in the “history” of the Iowa caucus, the Daily Caller reported.
These numbers are bound to be frustrating for the campaigns of challengers Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, who are counting on strong performances in the early states.
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“How advanced is Trump?”
“Trump currently leads Republican candidates in New Hampshire and Iowa by 46% and 51%, respectively, according to RealClearPolitics,” the story noted. Nikki Haley, former South Carolina governor, trails Trump by 24.8% and 16% in both states, respectively.
Harry Enten was emphatic about how strong Trump's numbers were in Iowa:
“It's huge progress!” Inten shouted. “I'll show the trend line for the Des Moines Register poll, which is the No. 1 poll in that state. And what you see here is that Donald Trump has gotten stronger. He was at 43% in October. Look where he is now. Over a majority, over 50%, a 51% majority And you see Ron DeSantis within the margin of error where he was in October. Look at Nikki Haley, she's stable. That's a 30-plus point advantage with Trump getting the majority of the votes. And I want to put this in historical context for you. How big is Trump's lead? They're the people who got 45% or more in Iowa at this point, all before Trump won the caucuses: Mondale in 1984, Bush in 2000, Gore in 2000, Hillary Clinton in 2016, and now we see Trump in 2024.
I would actually point out that Trump is the only person who actually received more than 50% of the vote. The rest of these people received 50% of the votes or less.”
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The strongest in the history of the electoral caucus in Iowa
Mattingly continued: “History?”
“History,” Enten replied.
Iowa is not necessarily an indicator of how all upcoming primaries and caucuses will go in different states.
In 2016, Ted Cruz won Iowa and fell into Donald Trump's trap. In 2012, Rick Santorum won Iowa, but lost to Mitt Romney.
In 2008, eventual winner John McCain finished last in Iowa.
But if Donald Trump is currently outperforming every other candidate in the history of such an event, it's worth paying attention to.
2024 has just begun.
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