Dow Jones futures rose overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The focus is on the December jobs report and the expected SEC approval of the first Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
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The stock market rally was mixed but modestly weak on Thursday. The bulls showed some fight, but major indexes closed session lows as the 10-year Treasury yield approached 4%.
However, a lot of stocks find support at the 21-day, 50-day or 10-week lines.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) broke out on Thursday, while Eli Lilly (LLY) fell after clearing early entries to start 2024. Spotify (spot) and Free market (MELI) rose above key levels.
Nvidia (NVDA) rose above the 10-week line. Tesla (TSLA) rose above 10 weeks as it works on the handle.
NVO stock has been added to the IBD Leaderboard, joining Nvidia. Eli Lilly stock is on SwingTrader, with SPOT and MercadoLibre joining on Thursday. MELI stock and Novo Nordisk are in the IBD 50. MercadoLibre was the IBD stock of the day on Thursday.
Jobs report
The Department of Labor will release the December jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 158,000, slowing from 199,000 in November. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% versus the previous month and 3.9% versus a year earlier, both cooling slightly compared to November.
At 10 a.m. ET, the December ISM Services Index will be announced. The consensus is 52.7, which is flat compared to November and still indicates modest growth in the services sector.
Markets see a two-thirds chance of Fed rate cuts starting in March, but that's lower than the near-lock just a week ago.
Bitcoin ETFs
The Securities and Exchange Commission will approve spot bitcoin ETFs on Friday, according to multiple sources, with trading starting next week. Previous reports set a January 10 deadline for immediate approvals for ETFs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs will hold the actual cryptocurrency. Existing bitcoin ETFs, including the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), track bitcoin futures. Spot ETFs are expected to attract a lot of institutional support.
Cryptocurrencies and stocks such as cryptocurrency exchanges CoinDesk (COIN) and Bitcoin miner Digital Marathon MARA has surged over the past year, especially the past three months, in anticipation of the SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
On Thursday, bitcoin rose 3.6% to $44,463.40 after falling strongly on Wednesday from a 20-month high above $45,000. COIN stock rose 2.2%, returning above its 21-day line after sharp losses over the previous three sessions. MARA stock rose 12.1% to 26.27 after rising slightly on Wednesday. Marathon reached a 52-week high of 31.30 on December 27.
On Thursday night, Bitcoin fell below $44,000.
Dow jones futures today
Dow Jones futures rose 0.1% versus fair value. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose.
The December jobs report is sure to weigh on Dow futures and Treasury yields on Friday morning.
Remember, an overnight move in Dow Jones futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Stock market pool
The stock market rally largely held its ground Thursday, after back-to-back losses of more than 1% in the Nasdaq to start 2024.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose in stock market trading Thursday. The S&P 500 index fell 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell approximately 0.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 index fell 0.2%.
The S&P 500 closed just below its 21-day moving average. The Russell 2000 reached resistance at the 21-day. The Nasdaq fell for the fifth straight session and is near the top of the July/early December range, with the 10-week line just below that.
bleak Mobile i (MBLY) Automotive chip startups were criticized by forecasts, while Apple's downgrade was once again bad news for iPhone chipmakers.
A number of high-quality stocks have made upward moves into buy or at least setup zones, but need the market to resume its advance to make a significant advance.
US crude prices fell 0.7% to $72.19 per barrel.
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds jumped 8.5 basis points to 3.99%, once again approaching the 4% level.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) was down 0.25%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 0.6%, even as Nvidia stock ranked first.
Reflecting more speculative stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rose 0.8% and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) rose 1.1%. COIN stock is the No. 1 stock in Ark Invest's ETFs, while Tesla remains a major component. On Wednesday, Cathie Wood's Ark bought some TSLA shares while dumping some Coinbase shares.
The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining Fund (XME) rose 0.2% and the Global X US Infrastructure Development Fund (PAVE) fell 0.2%. Shares of the US Global Jets ETF (JETS) rebounded just over 2%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) fell 0.2%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 1.75%.
Healthcare Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) rose 0.5%. LLY stock is the main holding.
The Select Industrial Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) rose 0.1%.
The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 0.4%.
Tesla vs. BYD: TSLA finds support as rival wins EV crown
Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly
Novo Nordisk stock rose 3.9% to 107.63, surpassing a firm buy point of 105.69, according to a MarketSmith analysis. NVO stock's relative strength line has rebounded since mid-December toward its highs. Novo Nordisk on Thursday announced two deals to bolster its obesity drug franchise.
Eli Lilly stock fell 0.5% on Thursday to 614.50 after briefly surpassing a flat buy level of 629.97. LLY stock broke above the resistance level near 600 on Wednesday and broke above the 50-day line on Tuesday.
Eli Lilly announced a direct-to-consumer website.
Spotify, Mercadolibre
Spotify stock rose 2.5% on Thursday to 192.58, rebounding from near the 10-week line, reclaiming the 21-day barrier and breaking a brief downtrend. All of this provided an early entry into what would have been an emerging flat base atop an earlier cup-with-handle base. Spotify peaked at 202.88 on December 6, within a 20%-25% profit taking zone.
MELI stock rose 1.3% to 1,519.38, rebounding from its 50-day line. Investors could have used that as a strong entry, or waited for the stock to clear the 21-day line. MercadoLibre is on track to form a flat base after closing Friday at an official buy point of 1660. This will be part of a base on base pattern.
Nvidia stock
Nvidia stock rose 0.9% to 479.98, rebounding to just above the 10-week high line but reaching resistance at the 21-day mark. Shares are working on a 505.48 flat base buy point formed around the top of the double bottom base. A move above 500 could provide early entry into NVDA stock.
Tesla shares
TSLA stock fell 0.2% to 237.93, essentially on its 10-week line, after falling 4% on Wednesday. Tesla posted record deliveries in the fourth quarter. But analysts are focused on fourth-quarter earnings and earnings expectations for 2024, after a year of Tesla price cuts and an increasingly lackluster climate for electric vehicle sales overall.
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Market rise analysis
If you are an aggressive trader, you may be able to bite into some of the leading stocks that are making upward movements.
But the market's fading at the close wasn't a great sign, weighing on morning winners like LLY shares. If the market decline continues, more promising new buys will turn into quick losers.
However, investors should build their own watch lists. If the market goes up in the next few days, you want to be ready.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay on top of market trend and leading stocks and sectors.
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