What are Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s chances as MVP in 2024? We know that he is not yet among the greatest first basemen of all time. We also know he's not off to the best start in 2024.
However, we also know that the 25-year-old has limitless potential. With plenty of time left in the season, is there a chance for Guerrero to turn things around enough to become an MVP candidate?
Rating of MVP chances for Vlad Junior
Overall, Vlad Jr.'s stats this season don't look like he deserves an MVP award. However, April's sluggish numbers still weigh on what was a great May.
If he continues like this, Guerrero could still put himself in the middle of the AL MVP race for 2024. With that in mind, let's take a look at Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s chances as the 2024 MVP.
basics
In the grand scheme of things, Guerrero isn't particularly close to the MVP discussion. While he has an OPS of over .800, he is still more than 200 points behind the league leader. His five home runs this season is a paltry amount with three other players already hitting 17 home runs.
Additionally, Guerrero's 25 RBI over 52 games doesn't even represent half of league-leading Jose Ramirez's total. To be fair, Guerrero ranks among the top five hitters in the American League in terms of batting average and on-base percentage. But that won't be enough to make an MVP case.
Advanced statistics
While some of his numbers have been a bit disappointing so far, there are reasons to believe Guerrero has been a little better this year than the stats say. You just have to look at some of his advanced stats.
For example, Guerrero is top five in the majors in exit velocities and top five on most balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or more. In fact, their hard-hit percentage trails only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto. These numbers certainly put Guerrero in exclusive company among some of the best hitters in the game, including some of the best former players.
Make his move
As previously mentioned, Guerrero started the season slow in April. In April, he hit just .219 with an OPS of .629. But Guerrero turned things around in May, which isn't surprising when you look at some of his advanced stats.
Over his first 20 games in May, Guerrero batted .382 with an OPS of .979. Even with just two home runs during that span, he's putting up the kind of numbers that make someone an MVP candidate and that you'd expect from someone who makes tough contact like he did this year.
Team success
Like it or not, a team's success plays a role in MVP voting. While players like Mike Trout have won the MVP award multiple times on teams that don't make the playoffs, Toronto's success can only help Guerrero's MVP nomination. So far, the Blue Jays are not cooperating, sitting last in the AL East. Of course, part of that was due to Guerrero's slow start in April, though he wasn't the only Toronto hitter to struggle early in the season.
However, Guerrero's progress in May wasn't enough to lift the Blue Jays out of the basement. The upside is that Toronto is still a few games out of Wild Card territory.
Judgment
Can Guerrero overcome a bad April and make a strong case for an MVP award by the end of the year? This is entirely possible with plenty of time left in the season. We know he has a proven track record of performing at an elite level while his advanced stats this year suggest he could end up having one of his best seasons.
However, Guerrero has certainly put himself behind in the race with his late run in April. In all likelihood, he will need to maintain his productivity from May for the rest of the season while leading the Blue Jays to the playoffs to make a legitimate argument as the MVP. Right now, this doesn't seem particularly likely, although we'd say there's a chance.
