Finland, a traditionally neutral country, officially joined the alliance in April, after submitting a request with Sweden in response to the war. Sweden's path to joining the European Union has been paved after Hungary last week became the latest member state to ratify the long-stalled bid.
Analysts say the addition of Stockholm will change Europe's security landscape for years to come — and could further strain relations with Russia, which opposes the alliance's expansion.
The addition of Sweden and Finland provides NATO with expanded land, sea and air capabilities. Sweden has a strong navy, strengthening NATO defenses in the Baltic Sea, and manufactures its own fighter aircraft.
The well-financed Finnish army maintains conscription for men. This is a “whole-of-society approach to thinking about defense,” said Christopher Scaloppa, director of the Atlantic Council's Transatlantic Security Initiative. “They can mobilize hundreds and thousands of their fellow citizens.”
These countries also provide key geographical advantages, which strengthens NATO's defences.
Increased Baltic presence
Sweden's membership increases NATO's access to the Baltic Sea.
Sweden's membership increases NATO's access to the Baltic Sea.
Sweden's membership increases NATO's access to the Baltic Sea.
Sweden's membership increases NATO's access to the Baltic Sea.
To the south, Sweden and Finland's membership gives the alliance an advantage in the Baltic Sea, a strategic waterway bordered by the Russian city of Saint Petersburg, as well as some of NATO's more vulnerable members.
“NATO’s main mission is to keep Russia away from the Baltics,” Skalopa said, referring to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. The growing presence on the shores of the Baltic Sea could enhance security in those countries.
“Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO will provide NATO with another strengthening route through the Baltic Sea,” said Karissa Nitsche, associate fellow in the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
In the middle of the sea lies Gotland, a 109-mile-long Swedish island that is home to medieval ruins and military fortifications. In 2022, Sweden announced it would spend $163 million to bolster its forces on the island, including expanding barracks to house more troops.
More than 50% of the coast of the Arctic Ocean is Russian territory
As a member of the Arctic Council, Sweden's membership would increase NATO's presence in a region that Russia considers vital to its security.
More than 50% of the coast of the Arctic Ocean is Russian territory
As a member of the Arctic Council, Sweden's membership would increase NATO's presence in a region that Russia considers vital to its security.
More than 50% of the coast of the Arctic Ocean is Russian territory
As a member of the Arctic Council, Sweden's membership would increase NATO's presence in a region that Russia considers vital to its security.
Historically, the GIUK Gap was of strategic importance as a means of navigating around the difficult Arctic Ocean.
More than 50% of the coast of the Arctic Ocean is Russian territory
Historically, the GIUK Gap was of strategic importance as a means of navigating around the difficult Arctic Ocean.
As a member of the Arctic Council, Sweden's membership would increase NATO's presence in a region that Russia considers vital to its security.
Sweden's joining NATO means increasing its presence in the Arctic.
Sweden, along with Finland, is a member of the Arctic Council, an organization that oversees the northern parts of the world and whose members include Russia, Canada and the United States. With their membership, “Arctic security will continue to rise on NATO’s agenda,” Nietzsche said.
Since more than 50% of the Arctic Ocean coast is Russian territory, this region could be on Moscow's agenda as well. “They view security in the region as a matter of homeland defense,” Skalopa said.
Military missions are spread out from the Kola Peninsula — a strategic landmass about 110 miles east of the border where Russia maintains ballistic missile submarines and stores nuclear warheads — throughout the Arctic. As members, Sweden and Finland can help monitor this activity, but they can also increase the risk of escalation.
“The Arctic is generally considered a success story of cooperation between NATO Arctic countries and Russia, but there are concerns that it will increasingly become a contested area in the security sphere, which is perhaps more likely with Sweden and Finland joining NATO countries,” Skaloppa added. . .
Finland's membership in NATO adds 800 miles to the alliance's border with Russia.
Finland's membership in NATO adds 800 miles to the alliance's border with Russia.
Finland's membership in NATO adds 800 miles to the alliance's border with Russia.
Finland's membership in NATO adds 800 miles to the alliance's border with Russia.
Finland's border with Russia extends more than 800 miles and is already heavily patrolled. The country's membership doubles the alliance's land borders. “On the one hand, this provides NATO with enhanced deterrence as Moscow will need to defend these borders,” Nietzsche said. “On the other hand, NATO must also protect these borders from any Russian attack.”
Finns remember the Winter War that took place between 1939 and 1940, when the country suffered heavy losses while repelling Soviet forces.
“Their relationship with Russia is characterized by distrust,” said Cristina Florea, a historian of Central and Eastern Europe at Cornell University.
Finland's membership also brings the alliance closer to the Kola Peninsula. The Russian Northern Fleet, tasked with patrolling the Arctic, is also on the peninsula.
Sources: NATO, Geography of the International System: CShapes Dataset (Old State Boundaries)
