Read the latest updates from Saturday: Dozens of Florida counties are under a state of emergency as hurricane forecasters track the storm
A developing tropical system in the Caribbean — which isn't even a depression or storm yet — is moving toward the Gulf of Mexico and could impact Florida by next week, forecasters said.
“The chance of a tropical depression or storm developing has increased, especially later this weekend into early next week,” said Weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce. “This system will likely impact Florida around Tuesday or Wednesday, but it is too early to quantify any impacts.”
The next named storm for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be Idalia (pronounced “ee-DAL-ya”).
“Last year's Storm E (Ian) also came from the western Caribbean Sea and headed up the west coast of the Florida peninsula, but fortunately so far there is no sign of anything like that happening this time,” Hurricane University of Miami. Researcher Brian McNoldy said in his blog on Thursday.
What does the hurricane center say?
The National Hurricane Center is cooperating with the development of this system, giving it an 80% chance of forming: “Environmental conditions appear favorable for the gradual development of this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend.” Or early next week as it moves generally northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico.”
“Interests in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress of this system,” the hurricane center said.
While Gulf waters are warm enough to form a depression or storm, wind shear is a potential limiting factor, Dolce said: Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction with height and is usually a hostile factor that prevents storms from forming. He said.
“The probability of a hurricane reaching Florida is low at this time,” Dolce said.
Governor DeSantis is preparing Florida for a potential storm
With Florida in the likely path of the storm, officials began preparing. Gov. Ron DeSantis' official schedule on Thursday showed he had a call with Department of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie.
Later, DeSantis posted on
Spaghetti models for the Gulf storm
“Spaghetti models” include a wide range of forecasting models. As of Friday afternoon, the models shown below are forecasts based on the performance of past storms and potential wind shear, and not the high-level ensemble models that forecasters use to forecast the track once a storm forms.
Latest news about Tropical Storm Franklin
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Tropical Storm Franklin continues to swirl in the Atlantic Ocean. Franklin is expected to remain offshore and will likely become a hurricane within the next two days, the hurricane center said.
In the United States, the only impact expected from Hurricane Franklin will be along the Atlantic coast, with the main impacts being strong waves and coastal erosion. “Tropical Cyclone Franklin is expected to pass east of North Carolina Monday into Tuesday and produce a long-lasting swell across North Carolina waters,” the North Carolina Weather Service forecast office said. “This swell, combined with a King Tide circulation early in the week, could cause Next, the situation will worsen.” It results in some beach erosion and ocean inundation across the Outer Banks.”
Also in the Atlantic Ocean, a pair of tropical disturbances offshore are unlikely to impact land, the hurricane center said. It is possible that one of them will turn into a tropical depression by early next week.
Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network; Deena Voyles Pulver, USA Today
