More than a week before the official start of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center were monitoring a tropical disturbance near the Bahamas.
The system, which has only a 10% chance of developing into a storm, appeared on Hurricane Center forecast maps Sunday afternoon.
“Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1, but our forecasters are always watching,” the hurricane center said in a tweet Monday morning. “This weak disturbance near the Bahamas has a very low chance (10%) of starting the Atlantic season just ahead of schedule in 2023.”
In a report issued Monday morning, the Hurricane Center said, “Showers and some thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast of central Bahamas remain poorly organized. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected.” To prevent development as the system moves generally north-northeast at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic over the next day or so.
When is hurricane season?:Here's when hurricane season starts and what to expect in 2023
Threatening Memorial Day weekend in the Southeast?
Although this system is not expected to reach much ground, the overall pattern of the atmosphere over the southeastern U.S. will remain unstable over the next few days and into Memorial Day weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists said.
The weather pattern will remain stormy even if a tropical or subtropical storm does not develop.
“Instead of any tropical development, there is an extended period of stormy weather ahead of us,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Andrew Johnson Levin added, “Regardless of whether disturbances in the pattern are associated with the tropics or not, impacts along the southern Atlantic coast could be particularly devastating to outdoor activities in the days prior and during the extended weekend.” For Memorial Day.”
It's almost hurricane season:Below is a list of names for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
“Pre-season” storms are not rare
Over the past 50 years, 19 storms have formed before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1.
Fourteen of those nineteen “off-season” or “unseasonal” storms over the past 50 years formed in May. Three more were born in April.
“Although hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1, a tropical system in May is not at all uncommon,” Johnson-Levin said. “Since 2010, most years have had a tropical depression or storm in May, and this year may continue that trend.”
2023 Hurricane Season Forecast:Why this year's forecasts come with 'huge uncertainty'
Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network
