Monday's resignation “is a good step because it indicates they are taking this seriously,” said a diplomat in the region, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private discussions. “But a lot needs to happen for real change, including at the top.”
There are few clear options to replace Abbas, even if he is willing to step down. And the man many believe will have the best chance of uniting the complex and rancorous world of Palestinian politics — Marwan Barghouti, Abbas's longtime rival — is currently serving multiple life sentences in an Israeli prison.
Abbas, known as Abu Mazen, turned 88 in November and has not held an election in nearly 18 years. The majority of Palestinians view the Authority as corrupt, authoritarian, and overly cooperative with Israel. An opinion poll published in December showed that more than 90 percent of Palestinians in the West Bank want Abbas to step down.
However, he has given no public indication that he is ready to resign or allow voters to choose to replace him. Abbas has indicated that his choice for a new prime minister will be an ally, economic advisor Mohamed Mustafa, suggesting that he hopes to retain control of the office rather than step back as a figurehead.
However, the turmoil caused by the Gaza war and Biden's focus on a “single governance structure” that could unite Gaza and the West Bank have prompted Palestinians and diplomats to search for potential new leaders.
The options are slim, according to political observers.
They say that Abbas prevented rising stars from building their profiles in the Fatah party he leads. Dissenters were arrested and rivals were exiled. Nizar Banat, a popular opposition figure and anti-corruption activist, was killed by power security forces in 2021. Entrepreneurs and young professionals have been largely kept at bay by the dysfunction of power.
“They were never good at nurturing and developing new faces,” said Diana Butu, a Palestinian human rights lawyer and former adviser to Abbas. “There is not a large list of candidates.”
Bhutto said the office had little appeal for up-and-coming talent, partly because its powers had been greatly curtailed. The Authority was formed in 1993 under the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization as a transitional body, which was supposed to last for only five years before evolving into a negotiated independent state government. Thirty years later, there is no state or negotiations to achieve it, and the Palestinian Authority exercises only limited control over parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
“You are really the president of nothing,” Bhutto said. “People don't line up for it.”
Among those often mentioned as potential leaders for the next generation are: Mohammed Dahlan, the former Palestinian security chief and Abbas rival who has a large following in Gaza and now lives in exile in Abu Dhabi; Salam Fayyad, the former Palestinian prime minister and International Monetary Fund official with deep ties to the West; Nasser al-Qudwa, nephew of Fatah founder Yasser Arafat, served as ambassador to the United Nations and Abbas's foreign minister before separating from the president.
But the most popular figure by far is Barghouti, the leader of the Second Intifada, or Palestinian Intifada, who gained iconic status during the 22 years he spent in Israeli prisons. He is described as one of the few figures with broad appeal to bridge the many divisions in Palestinian politics, especially the ongoing division between Fatah and Hamas, the armed group that rules Gaza and led the October 7 attack on Israel.
With his shackled face and wrists adorning murals across the West Bank, Barghouti is said to transcend factions, amassing support across parties and regions – in the West Bank and Gaza, among Islamists and secular nationalists alike. In last December's poll, he led Abbas by 40 points.
“Marwan Barghouti could easily be elected president,” said Khalil Al-Shaqaqi, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, which conducted the poll. “None of these others were able to present themselves as an alternative to Abbas except Barghouti.”
Barghouti is a former member of Fatah and gained a reputation for independence even when Arafat was in power. He expressed his support for coexistence with Israel and armed resistance. Israel convicted Barghouti of murder and supporting terrorism in 2004.
Hamas is now reportedly pushing for Barghouti's name to be included on the list of prisoners to be released in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages under an agreement being negotiated in Doha, Qatar.
Israel often describes Barghouti as a major terrorist. But some Israeli security leaders, pointing to his popularity and record of support for the two-state solution, say Israel should consider releasing Barghouti and negotiating with him.
“Look at the Palestinian opinion polls,” Ami Ayalon, the former head of the Shin Bet security service, told The Guardian in January. “He is the only leader who can lead the Palestinians to a state alongside Israel.”
Arab Barghouti, Barghouti's son and spokesman, declined to comment on any future leadership role for his father, saying he preferred not to speculate about the continuation of hostage negotiations.
Barghouti remained in the public eye, speaking through relatives and writing letters and opinion pieces. In 2021, when Abbas announced his plans to hold elections, Barghouti presented a credible challenge to the president from his prison cell. Abbas later canceled the elections.
“He is very popular, there is no doubt about that,” Bhutto said. “But can he rule? That I do not know.”
If Barghouti or any other candidate cannot replace Abbas, the idea of revitalizing the Palestinian Authority may be doomed from the start, according to analysts. Shikaki said that the Palestinians would view reform without a change in leadership as a “cruel joke.”
Al-Qudwa, Arafat's nephew, who communicates regularly with Western officials about planning for the new authority, said efforts are underway to convince Abbas to become an “honorary president,” eventually allowing him to exit to save face.
Abbas's office declined a request for comment.
A Western diplomat said other parties could guarantee Abbas a nice post-presidency in Qatar or other Arab countries where previous leaders have stayed away from public life.
“Doha has provided comfortable retirement places for a group of people, and has the financial capacity to cushion their landing,” said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.
The diplomat said that Abbas has so far refused to cede any territory to his rivals.
