And then there were two. Chelsea and Liverpool are the last two teams to qualify for the League Cup this season, and on Sunday evening, one of the two teams will return to Wembley Stadium to lift the 63-year-old trophy in front of a crowd of nearly 90,000.
These are the occasions when the League Cup looks in poor health; The final was watched in 194 territories around the world and remains a cherished starting point in the English football calendar.
However, beneath the veneer is a competition that fears its days are numbered.
The cancellation of the two-legged semi-finals remains part of the ongoing debate between the Premier League and the Premier League ahead of UEFA and FIFA expanding club competitions next season, and a compressed football calendar will ultimately require domestic sacrifices.
The athlete Analyzes the future of the League Cup.
We've been talking about the League Cup being under threat for years, haven't we?
We already have it. The League Cup has long been the bad rap of English football. It lacks FA Cup history (it only started in 1961) and offers little of the prestige of the Premier League. Fighting for relevance in a crowded field has become her greatest battle and she seems doomed to lose.
The land has been gradually ceded over the past 30 years to reflect its diminishing status. The home and away matches in the first and second round of the 2001-2002 season, as well as the replay after the 1996-1997 season, were cancelled. Extra time was even scrapped for the 2018-19 competition, with all ties except the final going straight to penalties.
It can offer little financial reward other than gate receipts (this weekend's winners will receive just £100,000), and as such, Premier League and English Football League clubs are struggling to find the incentives to target an extended tour. Wholesale changes, especially in the early rounds, have become a given.
This doesn't mean it doesn't make any sense. For the 11th year in a row, it will be lifted by one of the Premier League's 'big six' members, so the elite still view the League Cup as something worth winning. But we should not confuse this with support for its long-term future. Many will see it happily disappear.
“Abolish competitions, eliminate this competition,” Pep Guardiola, a four-time Manchester City coach, said in January 2020.
Pep Guardiola will be happy the League Cup is scrapped (Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)
It was also the year of Project Big Picture, radical plans that proposed abolishing the League Cup and Community Shield, as well as reducing the number of clubs in the English Premier League from 20 clubs to 18 clubs.
Among its most vocal supporters was EFL president Rick Barry. Turkey voted for Christmas at first glance, but the sacrifice of the League Cup, the jewel in the Premier League's crown, promised to see the 72 clubs compensated handsomely in a revised distribution model.
The Big Picture Project crash and burn has eliminated that possibility, but the League Cup remains acutely aware of its mortality. All one need do is look to France, which scrapped its version of the League Cup – the French League Cup – in 2019. England are now the only nation among the Big Five in European football to have two knockout competitions.
So what are the challenges facing the League Cup in 2024?
The two greatest threats to the continuity of this association come from Switzerland, home of UEFA and FIFA. This is where new pressure has been placed on the football calendar, and something must finally break down.
Next season is an important season. The 2024-25 campaign not only introduces UEFA's expanded Champions League format, but ends with a revamped 32-team Club World Cup spread over 29 days in the USA.
These changes will see four (possibly five) English clubs required to play two additional Champions League group stage matches, while Manchester City and Chelsea, who have already secured qualification for the Club World Cup, could have up to seven matches in the tournament. The end of their season. Any English club participating in the Europa League will also have eight group stage matches, instead of six, to move forward to next season.
UEFA and FIFA want their elite club competitions to grow, and the byproduct is stifling others in the ecosystem. The League Cup, which generates just £90m a season through central payouts and direct profits across its 92 rivals, has little chance of thriving but, in a larger debate, remains a bargaining chip the EFL can play.
Talks continue over a new deal for English football, with the Premier League and EFL unable to agree on a revised distribution model. Its complexities would be better explained at length here, but the League Cup is one of many moving parts being discussed.
The Premier League is seeking to scrap the two-legged semi-finals of next season, meaning the majority of League Cup matches a club competing in Europe needs to play are reduced from six to five.
The English Premier League is open to this proposal, as is the Football Association, which decided to cancel the replay in the third and fourth rounds of the FA Cup. However, bowing to the Premier League's desires requires something in return.
Barry made this clear when he appeared alongside Premier League chief executive Richard Masters at a select committee hearing called by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCSMS) last month.
Rick Barry won't make changes to the League Cup without a fight (Gareth Copley/Getty Images)
“As part of the new deal, we are prepared to accept a significant loss of revenue to our clubs from losing FA Cup replays, from the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final,” Barry said.
“We are not at all prepared to concede that on the basis of no deal. “There is no assumption that the Premier League can just change the fixture schedule, and we will abide by that without appropriate compensation.”
The Premier League then eight days later made a definitive play when it announced the outline dates for the 2024-25 season. The two semi-final matches have been retained, although they are not fixed.
EFL chief executive Trevor Burch said: “At present, there is no agreement in place to make any changes to the Carabao Cup semi-final system, which continues to provide a significant financial benefit to EFL clubs.
Is there really no room in the schedule?
There is still space, but only just. A quick look at the 2024-2025 calendar tells us that.
Starting with the next Premier League season, which begins on 17 August and ends on 25 May 2025, there are 38 midweek places available when deducting those taken up on Boxing Day and New Year's Day commitments.
That sounds like a lot, but eight of them were lost outright in international breaks, while UEFA will now cordon off a further 18 matches to include qualifying qualifiers, group stages and the knockout stages of an expanded Champions League. Then there are two midweek Premier League rounds, plus the Premier League's winter break eliminating three more rounds.
This leaves nine matches for the knockout competitions in English football and emergency weeks in the Premier League, hence the ongoing controversy over replays of the FA Cup third and fourth round matches and the League Cup semi-finals.
There is a quiet acceptance that both will disappear in time, but – and this is a big but – only when the FA and the Football Association make a decision.
The English football calendar is drawn up and agreed each year by all stakeholders, and it is ultimately the Premier League's choice, by a vote of 72 clubs, as to when to cancel the two-leg semi-finals, or, if the time comes, the entire competition. This is their leverage in the debate and it is something they will not give up without seeking compensation from the Premier League.
TV companies remain committed to the League Cup (Ian Kington/AFP via Getty Images)
The final five matches of each League Cup season (four semi-finals and a final) have long been considered the most valuable fixtures in the Premier League. TV rights to the League Cup are being sold as part of an EFL package covering the Championship, League One, League Two, EFL Cup and play-offs, and Barry has previously said its main competition in the knockout stage accounts for “60 per cent plus” of that profit.
Losing two semi-final ties, which usually involve attractive Premier League clubs, would reduce the value of the League Cup, but The athlete It has been told it will not impose a financial penalty on the EFL's new five-year TV deal starting in 2024-25. This new contract, which was agreed last May, is worth £187 million to the Premier League, an increase of 50 per cent on the deal that expires at the end of this season. All 93 League Cup matches will be broadcast live for the first time, but no opponent will be necessary, as per the condition agreed, if the number drops to 91.
Is there anyone still supporting the League Cup and what will it look like in the future?
The League Cup has lasting value for many clubs at the bottom of the pyramid. Just ask AFC Wimbledon, who have been drawn to play away to Chelsea this season, two years after being paired with Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium. These two relationships have potentially earned the League Two club more than £500,000 in combined gate receipts alone.
Each season offers the promise of a windfall for those at the bottom of the pyramid and they are selected for TV coverage by Sky Sports bringing in a facilitation fee starting at £75,000 in the first round.
The sums up for grabs are much smaller than those on offer through the FA Cup, where this season's winners will collect £4.4m in prize money alone, but the rewards are not in short supply for those outside the Premier League. Meanwhile, Liverpool and Chelsea are expected to receive an estimated £1 million each from Wembley gate receipts on Sunday.
Wembley Stadium will be full for Chelsea vs Liverpool on Sunday (Sean Botterill/Getty Images)
Fans are fond of the competition, too. The Premier League says more than 1.4 million fans attended League Cup matches this season before the final, the second highest attendance since the 2001-02 season.
Last month's semi-final second leg between Fulham and Liverpool also attracted an audience of 1.71 million. Given that the 2022 final between Liverpool and Chelsea had a peak audience of over 4 million, a repeat of that match can be expected to bring something similar from the UK crowd on Sunday.
However, there is still a feeling that it will never be enough. The League Cup stands on an eroding slope and expects no help from the Premier League. A home-and-away semi-final loss would certainly be the next step, but only a brave observer would expect a long life after that. If the EFL gets its wish and begins negotiating broadcast deals alongside the Premier League for 2029-30, its presence cannot avoid being part of the discussion.
Perhaps it will become a competition for clubs that do not compete in Europe. Perhaps all Premier League clubs eventually go awry. All options must be on the table.
“UEFA doesn't really like domestic cup competitions,” Barry said. The athlete In 2021. “You can either acknowledge it and accept that this is where life is, or you can try to fight it. “No matter what happens, there needs to be an open conversation.”
This may be guaranteed, but the ability of the League Cup to remain viable in the long term is unlikely.
(Top image: Lawrence Griffiths/Getty Images)
