Hello
today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain in the morning, then scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 79 near shore to about 68 at 4,000 feet. Winds are southeasterly up to 15 mph. The chance of rain is 70 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with several showers. Lows are around 64 near shore to around 53 at 4,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour, turning to northwesterly after midnight. The chance of rain is 70 percent.
Friday: Partly sunny with several showers. Highs are about 79 near shore to about 69 at 4,000 feet. Winds are northwest to 15 mph and will shift to the east in the afternoon. The chance of rain is 70 percent.
KONA
today: The weather will be sunny in most areas with scattered rain in the morning, then cloudy in most areas with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near shore to about 70 near 5,000 feet. Winds are northerly, reaching speeds of 10 mph and turning to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Tonight: The weather will be mostly cloudy with scattered rain in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered rain after midnight. Lows are around 66 near shore to around 54 near 5,000 feet. Light wind. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Friday: The weather will be sunny in most areas with scattered rain in the morning, then cloudy in most areas with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are 78 to 83 near shore to about 71 near 5,000 feet. Winds are westerly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour. 40 percent chance of rain.
water
today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. breezy. Scattered rain showers. Highs around 78 near shore to 71 to 76 near 3,000 feet. Winds are east, reaching speeds of 20 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. breezy. Scattered rain showers. Lows range from 63 near shore to 52 to 58 near 3,000 feet. Winds are east, reaching speeds of 20 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. breezy. Scattered rain showers. Highs around 78 near shore to 71 to 77 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 25 knots per hour, reaching 10 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Koala
today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. breezy. Scattered rain showers. Highs around 78 near shore to 71 to 76 near 3,000 feet. Winds are east, reaching speeds of 20 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. breezy. Scattered rain showers. Lows range from 63 near shore to 52 to 58 near 3,000 feet. Winds are east, reaching speeds of 20 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. breezy. Scattered rain showers. Highs around 78 near shore to 71 to 77 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 25 knots per hour, reaching 10 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
South of the Big Island
today: breezy. It will be mostly sunny with scattered rain in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 80 near shore to about 71 near 5,000 feet. Winds are east, reaching speeds of 25 mph. 40 percent chance of rain.
Tonight: breezy. The weather will be mostly cloudy with scattered rain in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered rain after midnight. Lows are around 66 near shore to around 53 near 5,000 feet. Winds are northeasterly, reaching 25 knots per hour, increasing to 10 to 25 knots after midnight. 40 percent chance of rain.
Friday: breezy. It will be mostly sunny with scattered rain in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 81 near shore to about 72 near 5,000 feet. Winds are easterly 10 to 25 knots. 40 percent chance of rain.
Bona
today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain in the morning, then scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 79 near shore to about 68 at 4,000 feet. Winds are southeasterly up to 15 mph. The chance of rain is 70 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with several showers. Lows are around 64 near shore to around 53 at 4,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour, turning to northwesterly after midnight. The chance of rain is 70 percent.
Friday: Partly sunny with several showers. Highs are about 79 near shore to about 69 at 4,000 feet. Winds are northwest to 15 mph and will shift to the east in the afternoon. The chance of rain is 70 percent.
Wekoloa
today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs are about 79 near shore to 67 to 72 above 4,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour, turning to northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows range from 67 near shore to 50 to 56 above 4,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Friday: It will be mostly sunny with scattered rain in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are around 80 near shore to 68 to 73 above 4,000 feet. Winds are east at 15 mph and will shift to the north in the afternoon. It reaches speeds of up to 40 miles per hour. 40 percent chance of rain.
summary
Moderate to breezy trading will prevail locally from the east to the east-southeast over the next two days. Rainfall chances will remain higher in leeward and mocha locations, especially during the overnight and early morning hours, with afternoon showers possible over leeward areas each day. Increased humidity and the return of a refreshing easterly trade will support greater wind coverage over the weekend and into the middle of next week.
discussion
Currently, a high of 1034 mb is centered about 1,250 miles north of Honolulu, while a low of 1002 mb is positioned about 1,050 miles west and northwest of Kauai. Moderate easterly trade winds are blowing over unprotected parts of the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite images show cloudy conditions across much of the state. Radar images show scattered showers moving toward leeward slopes and coastlines, with a fair number of dissolving showers seeping into leeward communities. The main focus in the short term is on trade wind trends and precipitation chances over the next few days.
High pressure will strengthen as it remains roughly entrenched north of the islands today through Friday, while the state's west-northwest low turns northeast to a position 800 to 1,000 miles northwest of Kauai. Trade winds are expected to strengthen slightly during this time, although they will generally remain at locally moderate to breezy levels. As the boundary layer flows east-southeast, some local sea breezes will be possible in more sheltered wind areas each afternoon as well. The low will weaken and eventually turn into a low over the weekend, while a strong high to the north will settle farther south and closer to the island chain. This will bring circulation to breezy levels statewide and shift the trend to a more typical east-northeast direction. The strong rise will hold up north of the state into early next week, before being reinforced by a new strong rise farther north in the middle of next week. The breezy trading is expected to continue into the beginning of next week, with occasional windy conditions.
As for the rest of the weather details, it is expected that there will be a slight change in the general weather pattern during Friday. Rain will favor leeward slopes and coasts. Loosening rain will reach leeward communities at times, and some drizzle will develop each afternoon aided by local sea breezes.
There is still some uncertainty about how far east the front will reach late in the week, with the GFS remaining less advanced and more westward than the ECMWF. This difference affects timing details on a shallow, wet boundary associated with an old front moving across the state Friday night and Saturday. Given the uncertainty of timing, we will continue to report a typical trade wind weather pattern, with a 6-12 hour period expected to be somewhat humid when this boundary moves. Furthermore, fairly typical trade wind weather can be expected from Saturday night into the middle of next week, with showers in the windward and mocha areas and some downwind rain from time to time.
airline
Moderate trading will continue, with clouds and light rain favoring downwind and mocha locations. MVFR CIGs/VSBYs will persist this morning in some leeward areas, especially during showers. Some of this rain was able to spread to leeward sections of the small islands.
AIRMET Sierra is now in effect to block mountains to the north across the southeast-facing slopes of Kauai, and will likely continue through the morning hours today. Other downwind locations may need to be listed later this morning.
Navy
A new easterly trade develops tonight into Friday as high pressure builds over the islands along with low pressure deepening northwest of the area. A small boat advisory remains in place for windier waters and will likely require expansion as winds continue to strengthen into the weekend. New trading continues well into next week.
The current moderate and long northwesterly swell peaked yesterday evening into last night and will now calm steadily over the remainder of the week. Another moderate, long-lasting swell is expected to arrive northwest (330) early this weekend creating similar waves on exposed beaches. Waves may approach the advisory threshold during their peak late Saturday into Saturday night.
East-facing beaches remain dominated by short-wave winds in the near term. However, deep low pressure descending from the Gulf of Alaska down the west coast of the US mainland will generate a moderate and moderate NE swell (060) that will fill late this weekend and peak early next week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advice
Small Boat Advisory until 6pm GMT Friday for Maui County Windward Waters, Malaya Bay, Belulu Channel, Alinuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, and Big Island Southeast Waters.
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Data provided by NOAA.gov
