We're just four weeks away from the start of the climate winter, and it could be murky for some parts of the U.S. as El Niño heats up and reshapes the weather over North America.
El Niño is a phenomenon that occurs when waters near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean are at least 0.9°F (0.5°C) higher than the historical average for an extended period of time. It officially developed in early June and has continued to flex its muscles, setting the stage for the first El Niño winter since the 2018-19 season.
El Niño continues to strengthen
In an update issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday, the agency said a “strong” El Niño is now in the Pacific Ocean, and continues to show signs of strength.
From Noah: “There is a greater than 55% chance that a strong El Niño will persist at least through January to March 2024,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a press release. “There is a 35% chance that this event will become ‘historically strong’.”
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The rise of El Niño represents a major reversal from the previous three winters when its cooler counterpart, La Niña, prevailed. This inversion will have major impacts on the weather across North America throughout the winter, some of which are already being felt.
What does a strengthening pattern mean for winter weather?
Although El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it reshapes the jet stream and, ultimately, the weather thousands of miles away. Weather patterns are a lot different than they were when La Niña was around, which is why long-term meteorologists at AccuWeather say this winter could be a lot different than recent years.
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From the experts: El Niño will be a “dominant factor” in our winter outlook, said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's long-range meteorologist.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect a wetter winter across the South, while areas across the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northern Plains will see less precipitation and milder conditions. Along the West Coast, El Niño tends to direct moisture-rich storms to California rather than the Pacific Northwest.
Along the East Coast, El Niño can also set the stage for major snowstorms, which is why AccuWeather is predicting more snow this year than last winter in New York City, Philadelphia and Boston.
Between the lines: The ongoing El Niño is already stronger than the most recent El Niño during the winter of 2018-2019, meaning it will have more pronounced impacts. “Not all El Niños are the same,” Pastelok added.
To read the complete region-by-region breakdown of U.S. winter forecasts, click here.
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