– Prepared by Andrew Marchand, Nicole Auerbach, Stuart Mandel, and Chris Vannini
The future of college football may receive some much-needed clarity this week. At least, that's the hope of many involved in planning for the sport's long-awaited expanded postseason.
ESPN has agreed to terms with College Football Playoff representatives on a six-year, $7.8 billion extension to televise the event through 2031-32. But the commissioners and presidents who run the CFP have yet to agree on any aspects of the format beyond the 12-team model in place for the next two seasons, setting up a few pivotal days of meetings.
The terms agreement negotiated between ESPN and CAA Evolution, which represents the CFP, has been in place for months, but CFP leaders still need to vote on the deal for it to take effect. Some of the executives involved described these leaders' inability to reach consensus on issues they had hoped to settle before signing as “chaos.”
The commissioners said they are treating the 2026-2027 playoffs as a blank slate, with no particular allegiance to any formats or decisions made over the past decade. But this approach means there's a lot to iron out, from automatic anchors to revenue distribution, and outside onlookers are eager to see progress.
Meanwhile, ESPN executives are running out of patience, and as Puck's business writer John Aurand first reported, they will consider pulling the offer if the CFP fails to get its act together soon.
The Board of Directors, rectors and chancellors who form the organisation's highest governing body, will meet virtually on Tuesday. The commissioners (and Notre Dame leadership) who make up the CFP management committee will meet in person in Dallas on Wednesday. Can they reach consensus on the details for 2026 and beyond that have hindered forward progress so far? If not, what happens?
“What's the alternative? No playoff?” A source involved in the discussions said. “That's not possible. It could be a disaster.”
One possible alternative is what many in college sports feared when the SEC and Big Ten announced their new joint advisory group: a final break with the richest and most powerful leagues in college athletics. Even if it only serves as an implicit threat, it could give the two conferences significant leverage in negotiations that will determine the future of college athletics.
Those attending the two meetings this week are preparing for a battle that may become fierce and controversial.
“The corporate world doesn't have the same expectations of collegiality from colleagues as higher education does,” one said.
When it comes to Partnership for Peace negotiations, they clash.
It's been nearly three years since a four-person subcommittee first proposed a 12-team model. It's been more than 17 months since the CFP Board of Directors forced commissioners back to the table and officially approved it. However, very few of the most important issues were resolved, despite dozens of meetings held by the commissioners, most of them at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport hotels. Those on the inside know how bad the situation is for those on the outside.
“It's embarrassing,” one commissioner said. “It was embarrassing (how long it took) to get to 12.”
Major college athletics has seen dramatic change over the past three years, with Oklahoma and Texas joining the SEC, USC and UCLA moving to the Big Ten and the subsequent implosion of the Pac-12. There has also been significant turnover among energy conference commissioners. Only the SEC's Greg Sankey has been at the helm longer than three years. The Big Ten and Big 12 have hired leaders with professional sports backgrounds.
Some commissioners in the room acknowledge that the Big Ten and SEC have the leverage to chart a path forward, but they haven't taken it away yet. These commissioners also say they don't know exactly what the Big Ten and SEC are Wants From the rest of the discussions, the hope is for more clarity in the meetings Tuesday and Wednesday.
The collapse of the Pac-12 accelerated efforts to adjust the 12-team model to five conference champions and seven at-large berths for the next two seasons, from the original structure that included six of each. The board is expected to vote on the 5+7 plan during its virtual meeting on Tuesday, according to three sources familiar with the process.
Washington State President Kirk Schulz, the Pac-12 representative and the lone holdout at the recent board meeting, is expected to propose that WSU and Oregon State receive revenue and voting powers similar to Power 4 schools in 2026 and beyond. It is unclear whether there is much support for this, especially since future revenue and governance plans have not been determined for anyone.
Two sources involved in the approval process said they expected the P5+7 to be the starting point for discussion about the format of the 2026 World Cup and beyond, but they acknowledged that it may not be the final decision. Sankey has proposed on numerous occasions a world with no automated docks at all. Big Ten Commissioner Tony Pettitte has proposed reconsidering previously passed bracket sizes, such as a 16-team field, people familiar with the discussion said. The athlete.
On the subject of revenue distribution, it's safe to assume that leagues will be rewarded for how many teams make it to the field and how far those teams advance, much like the payout model for the men's NCAA Tournament, a source familiar with the discussions said. The amount of participation and wins you are entitled to is not specified, as is the starting amount allocated to each league. The Power 5 leagues currently split about 80 percent of CFP revenue, and each conference receives roughly the same share regardless of its postseason appearance or performance.
One source involved in the discussions said they expect the Big Ten and SEC to push for larger revenue shares than those given to the Big 12 and ACC, creating a further disconnect between the two groups. Differentiation could take the form of a greater percentage of Big Ten and SEC revenue on a per-league or per-school basis, the source said.
Then there's the issue of governance: Will the Big Ten and the SEC, having recently formed a joint advisory group “to take a leadership role in developing solutions for a sustainable future for college sports,” push for more autonomy and/or more control over college sports. project? Decisions for 2026 and beyond will not need a unanimous vote as is currently the case, because the current contract cannot be renewed. These two leagues can withhold support for the media deal until these issues are resolved according to their desire.
ESPN has not yet set a deadline for the CFP to ratify its deal, but as a source familiar with ESPN's thinking said: “It's not going to wait forever.”
The current contract between the CFP and ESPN averages $609 million annually but has been escalating over time, which is why ESPN sees its new terms as a 28 percent increase, according to executives familiar with their discussions. The network is currently on the hook to pay about $800 million for each of the final two seasons of the original contract, and the four new first-round matches are estimated to be worth a combined $100 million, making their spending about $900 million over each of the next two years. If the new terms are ratified, average payments over the six-year term of the deal would reach $1.3 billion per season through 2031-2032, with annual payout numbers climbing over the life of the contract.
ESPN also has the option to sublicense five CFP games per season, according to officials familiar with the terms of the agreement. At its discretion, ESPN could look at the market and decide whether it wants to let other networks in for a fee anytime through 2032.
While ESPN has a specific terms agreement, in the wake of multiple reports about the deal last week, some rival networks have been told by factions within the CFP leadership that they could submit a new bid, according to officials familiar with the discussions. But companies like Fox, NBC and CBS have not made any known shows. ESPN is still considered the favorite.
Fox and NBC, the two networks most likely to emerge as alternative destinations, have so far found that a potential CFP price tag is not set in stone, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the format. In the wake of a “skinny package” partnership between ESPN, Fox Sports and Warner Brothers Discovery — where the brands will offer their services directly to consumer for an estimated $40 to $50 a month — NBC will likely reevaluate the offer, but it would be a big gamble by the CFP to You wait and see if NBC suddenly becomes interested, especially when the network is likely only competing for half the package at best.
The CFP is part of ESPN's five-year plan that includes a new upcoming bid for NBA rights, the hope of continuing its relationship with the UFC and an interest in resolving the regional sports network impasse affecting Major League Baseball, the NBA and the NHL. $1.3 billion in annual pre-CFP spending is not an amount Disney CEO Bob Iger and ESPN President Jimmy Pitaro would find between the seat cushions on a Space Mountain ride.
ESPN already has the CFP rights built into its books and wants to retain college football's full major-event arsenal as it launches its new venture with Fox Sports and WBD Sports this fall and ahead of its standalone direct-to-consumer launch in 2025. The network was recently re-upgraded to be the home of the division's women's basketball championship 1 and most of the other NCAA championships for $920 million over eight years, giving it potential control of the postseason for all college sports except the Division I men's basketball tournament. , owned by CBS and WBD Sports. If it moved away from the CFP, ESPN would still retain the long-term college football foothold of SEC and ACC exclusivity, Big 12 rights, and, in the next two seasons, at least a CFP majority.
It is against this media backdrop that CFP leaders will meet this week, needing to sort out the “mess” and find a path to alignment in order to collect the billions Iger and Pitaro have on the table.
“We are 10 months away from the start of the expanded playoff game,” Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick said. The athlete. “There's so much to do. You can't flip the switch. The clock is ticking.”
(Top Image: Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
