Starting in October 2023, I have written a total of 15 articles or posts, attempting to stage a play about the siege, fighting and invasion of the heavily fortified main stronghold of Avdiivka – or as I will now call it in alternative Russian. Latin “avdiivka”.
You can find here a complete list of my TGP articles about Avdiivka in my Telegram channel “Signal to Noise”.
From the experiences of covering the sieges of Mariupol and Bakhmuth, I predicted that: 1) the siege would be long and bloody (it came true); 2) The whole time MSM was commenting on how badly the Russians failed (check); And 3) a captured one, which the MSM says had no strategic importance – it was just a meaningless pile of rubble (check).
Nearly five months later, the Supreme Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Aleksandr Sirsky, announced the decision to leave Avdiivka. The official reason is that “Ukrainian forces withdraw to save military lives and occupy more advantageous defense lines.”.
Avdiivka is the first major victory for the Russians in 2024. The Donbass region was the most fortified, equipped for long-term operational and strategic defence.
Ukrainians are being expelled from the immediate outskirts of the capital, Donetsk. This is not expected to stop the bombing of civilians, but rather reduce its intensity.
Slaviangrad reported:
“There are several pockets of resistance remaining in the city: the small area of Khimik and the large area of The private sector in the south-east, as well as the territory of the Avdiivka coke plant, has not yet been cleared.
The Nazi “Azovites” of the 3rd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are blocked there, and their safe exit from the area is no longer possible – either due to the combat situation and complete fire control, or due to the lack of suitable means of transport for the exit, a significant part of which has been destroyed and damaged by flights. FAB-1500 crossed AKHZ territory during the day on 15 and 16 February.
Watch: The Russians bomb defensive positions in Avdiivka.
The Russians bomb defensive positions in Avdiivka. pic.twitter.com/PwfFPqK03r
– Paul Serran (@paul_serran) February 17, 2024
The Ukrainian Defense Minister promised that “he would return Avdiivka.” Rustam Omerov stated that “lessons have been learned” after the withdrawal from Avdiivka.
“Modern air defense systems are needed to prevent the enemy from using guided bombs. Long range weapons are essential to destroy enemy formations. Requires artillery shells. I'm constantly working on this. “We will return Avdiyevka.”
Watch: Nazi retreat in Azov at Avdiivka.
The Nazis retreated to Azov at Avdiivka. pic.twitter.com/VfiQvLDRDF
– Paul Serran (@paul_serran) February 17, 2024
President Zelensky, in Munich – guess what? – He asks for weapons.
“We will expose the main myth of Russia that Ukraine is unable to win this war. We will regain our territories, and Putin will be defeated. We have repeatedly proven on the battlefield: our capabilities are limited only by limited resources and a limited set of weapons, but everything else does not depend on us. The situation in Avdiivka proves this very accurately. Dear friends, unfortunately, we have an artificial shortage of weapons, artillery shells and other means, which is why Putin is escalating the intensity of military operations.
Watch: The Russian flag flies over the Avdiivka administration.
The Russian flag flies over the Avdiivka administration. pic.twitter.com/oFgNmxb8mk
– Paul Serran (@paul_serran) February 17, 2024
The commander of forces in the region, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, claimed that Russian forces had a 10-to-1 advantage in missiles.
Watch: The Russians seize the Avdiivka city clinic.
Russians take Avdiivka city clinic. pic.twitter.com/UGCCKp9G2N
– Paul Serran (@paul_serran) February 17, 2024
Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry: Kiev decided to withdraw its forces from Avdiivka not to “save lives”, but because it can only fight for money, the rest does not matter.
Sputnik reported:
“No, it's not because of this. It's because Zelensky and his gang only know how to 'fight' for big money that goes directly into their pockets, and only against civilians. Everything else doesn't matter to them,” Zakharova wrote on her Telegram channel.
Watch: The Russian flag flutters over Avdiivka city park.
The Russian flag flies over Avdiivka city park. pic.twitter.com/xG5MVm4T23
– Paul Serran (@paul_serran) February 17, 2024
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu informed President Vladimir Putin of the complete capture of Avdiivka by forces of the Tsentr Battle Group, under the command of Colonel-General Mordvichev.
Watch: The Russian flag on the roof of the Avdiivka coke plant, raised by soldiers from the 114th Brigade of the 1st Donetsk Army Corps.
Russian flags fly over a heavily fortified coke plant. pic.twitter.com/x9Y9i5xex7
– Paul Serran (@paul_serran) February 17, 2024
The conquest of Avdiivka represents an area of about 20 square miles being “liberated.” The Russian Ministry added that during the past 24 hours, Ukraine lost more than 1,500 soldiers in the battles of Avdiivka.
Watch: Abandoning low value units to cover the withdrawal of elite units. It is heartbreaking to see women in this situation.
“Undervalued” Ukrainian troops (including women), were left to cover the withdrawal. pic.twitter.com/rltNUXfDXF
– Paul Serran (@paul_serran) February 17, 2024
