Atmospheric research scientist Judah Cohen explains what models show the rest of winter will look like in the United States
Don't “put your fork into winter” just yet, a climate scientist warns, despite a little taste of spring this and next week following a deadly cold outbreak. The second round of winter may be on the horizon.
“As Yogi Berra described, it's happened again, with the polar vortex and its effect on our weather,” said Judah Cohen, an atmospheric and environmental research scientist at VERISK. “It's a very complex, fast-changing situation, but I think it'll come down to rinse, lather and repeat.”
What is a “polar vortex”?
This means a repeat of December's record low snow levels and warm temperatures. It follows a repeat of the record cold felt across much of the U.S. in early January when wind chills dropped to 60 degrees below.
“Cold will likely return to eastern North America in mid-February, a region where cold has been fleeting,” Cohen wrote in his blog about the polar vortex.
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Note the warmer temperatures indicated in red east of the Rockies during February 2-6 according to the weather model.
(NOAA)
“In the first half of January, that polar vortex tripped and fell over there, and moved south. We had an outbreak in the Arctic,” Cohen explained to FOX Weather on Tuesday. “But now, let's say, it's back together, and it's a very tight circulation, a polar vortex circulation. All the cold air is receding back towards the North Pole, and we're going to get a milder end to the polar layer. January.”
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The polar vortex is stable
(Fox Weather)
the Polar vortex It is a band of strong winds that revolve around the North Pole. The constant and stable circulation of these winds keeps the Arctic air fixed in place. When the winds slow and become unstable, just like at the top, the vortex oscillates and descends southward into the United States and Europe, according to Cohen.
In the near term, Cohen said, “We will likely see record high temperatures, just like we did in December.” “But I think a lot of times when you have this Canadian warming, the polar vortex tends to turn into a very large disturbance called a sudden stratospheric warming or extended event, like a rubber band (pulling cold air south).”
Weather changes in the stratosphere Earth's atmosphere About 19 miles above the surface, the leaden weather people feel at the surface changes for about two weeks.
The second round of winter is coming
Sudden stratospheric warming led to an Arctic blast in January. He wrote that the air in the stratosphere rose by 55 degrees over a six-day period Amy Butler of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Chemical Sciences Laboratory.. This slowed the winds of the polar vortex.
“This is what happened in January, which brought arctic air, and I think there is a good chance it will repeat itself in February,” Cohen said. “So look for a moderating pattern. I don't think this is the end of winter. I think it's not a breakdown of the pattern, but I think it's a comfortable pattern.”
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The polar vortex is broken
(Fox Weather)
This means another blast in the Arctic and the return of widespread snow.
“I think in the time frame of the second week of February through mid-February, an extended polar vortex is becoming more likely,” Cohen said. “This should help end the very mild pattern found across North America. The intensity and duration of cold weather associated with the extended polar vortex has yet to be determined.”
