A drone provides an aerial view of the California Department of Water Resources' first water release from Lake Oroville flood control gates of 2024, as water flows down the main spillway at Oroville Dam in Butte County, California on January 31, 2024. The water was released to conserve Space for the coming storms. (Photo: Javier Mascareñas/California Department of Water Resources)
Shorts? Sunglasses? Skin tanning cream? Put them away. It's time to wear a raincoat again.
Just when the Bay Area has become accustomed to sunshine and dry days, another week of wet weather is on the horizon. Three separate storm systems will hit Northern California starting Wednesday, bringing rain nearly every day until the following Wednesday, forecasters said Monday.
The storms will not be as large or severe as they were during the last system, which peaked on February 4, wreaking havoc in Southern California, dumping 5 feet of snow on the Sierra, triggering power outages across the state and issuing flood warnings. All over the state. Guadalupe River near downtown San Jose.
“It's not at the level of what we saw the weekend before last, but there are still good amounts of rain coming our way,” said Brayden Murdock, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Monterey. “It will be raining for a long time. Eventually it will reach a good amount.”
The first storm on Wednesday and Thursday will be especially mild with less than a half-inch of rain falling in most places. The second, on Saturday and Sunday, will be stronger, with the possibility of mild river conditions. Details of the third storm expected next Monday and Tuesday are still inaccurate.
But when the storms end a week from now, most Bay Area cities will receive another 2 to 3 inches of rain, with 4 to 6 inches falling in the Santa Cruz Mountains, Big Sur and North Bay Hills, according to National Weather Service forecasts.
Another 1 to 2 feet of snow is likely to fall in the Sierra Nevada next weekend.
This winter is expected to be almost perfect in terms of timing and water supply, experts said Monday.
“After a slow start, we've made great progress,” said Jan Knoll, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services in Half Moon Bay.
Reservoirs have risen steadily in recent weeks without the significant flooding and damage seen in 2017 or during last January and March when waves of powerful weather river storms struck Northern California, prompting a visit by President Biden to inspect damage at Capitola Wharf and Seacliff. State beach in Santa Cruz County.
The Sierra, the source of nearly a third of the state's water supply, started snowing this year at 25% of normal. By Monday, the rate had risen to 73% of normal and is likely to continue to increase through the weekend.
The pauses between storms this winter have been key. Instead of one after another, there were days of sun to disperse the rain. This pattern is exactly what California needs to build its winter water supply in an orderly manner.
“Dry days give everything a chance to recover,” Noll said. “Rivers can recover. Emergency services can recover. PG&E can recover.”
California has experienced severe drought conditions in eight of the past 12 years. Now, no state is experiencing any level of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly report. And the way this winter is going so far greatly reduces the chances of water shortages later this summer.
“Our storage is in really great shape,” said Andrea Bock, spokeswoman for the East Bay Municipal Utility District, which provides water to 1.4 million people in Alameda and Contra Costa counties.
On Monday, the district's seven reservoirs were 84% full.
To the north, the seven reservoirs in the Marin Municipal Water District were 100% full. Santa Cruz County's main reservoir, Loch Lomond, was 100% full.
Hetch Hetchy Reservoir in Yosemite National Park, the largest reservoir operated by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, which serves 2.4 million people in San Francisco, the Peninsula, north of Santa Clara and south of Alameda, was 89% full on Monday.
In Contra Costa County, the largest reservoir, Los Vaqueros, was 83% full.
The only major Bay Area water district with no or nearly full tanks is the San Jose-based Santa Clara Valley Water District, where the agency's 10 tanks were just 37% full on Monday. A large part of the reason is that the largest reservoir in the area, Anderson, near Morgan Hill, has been drained for seismic repairs.
And when it comes to California's largest reservoirs, which are vital water supply hubs for millions of urban residents and farmers, almost all of them are above their historical averages, boosted by last year's wet winter.
Lake Shasta, California's largest reservoir, near Redding, was 83% full on Sunday. It has risen 21 feet in the past three weeks. Lake Oroville in Butte County, the state's second-largest lake, is 79% full, having risen 20 feet in the past three weeks.
As the latest wave of large storms moves in, state and federal officials have increased releases from Oroville, Shasta, New Melones and other large dams, to free up space to capture incoming water and reduce flood risk.
Most of California's rain and snow falls in the north. It is delivered to the Central Valley, Bay Area, and Southern California through an extensive network of pumps and canals.
On Monday, precipitation at a network of eight weather stations in the Sierra Nevada's main watersheds that fill many of the state's largest reservoirs, known to water managers as the “Northern Sierra 8-Station Index,” was 84% of average. Historical rainfall.
After years of severe drought, interspersed with other years marked by floods, normal or near-normal floods came as a pleasant surprise to many.
“We're pretty close to the averages in a lot of places,” Noll said. “This is closer to a typical winter than we've seen in the last few years. It's not as severe as last year, and it's not as dry as years before. We're in the normal range, and that's a lot better than playing on the fringes.”
