Federal scientists announced that the current El Niño climate pattern has now reached “historically strong” status. They also expect its counterpart, La Niña, to develop in its place later this year.
Both weather patterns have enormous impacts on weather and climate in the United States and around the world. A typical effect of strong El Niño in winter is storms across the southern tier of the United States, from California to Florida.
Warmth from a strong El Niño, colloquially called a “super El Niño,” coupled with climate change also helped boost global temperatures in 2023, with the year ending as the warmest since accurate weather records began in the late 19th century.
The effects of El Niño in the United States will continue until April
As the transition to La Niña occurs, El Niño will weaken, but its effects on U.S. weather are expected to continue through April, the Climate Prediction Center said in a statement Thursday. This usually translates into more storms for the southern tier of the country, all the way from California to Florida. It also means warmer than average temperatures across much of the northern tier of the United States.
El Niño could also increase the chance of above-normal hurricane activity in central and southern Florida over the next two months.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said El Niño's impact on the United States overall was most noticeable in late fall through spring.
Record warmth in January
Global climate data from January are starting to emerge, and the string of record warm months continues: according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, “January 2024 was the warmest January on record globally.”
“This is the eighth month in a row that is the warmest on record for this month of the year,” the service added in a statement.
Data from NASA It also showed that January witnessed record high temperatures around the world.
Could La Niña mean more hurricanes?
Worryingly, later in the year, once La Niña takes hold, this pattern often helps boost hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach Published on Thursday the 10th.
But he added this caveat: “It should be noted that we are only in February, and a lot can change between now and when the Atlantic hurricane season ramps up (usually early to mid-August),” Klotzbach said.
If La Niña develops, “it could also have a significant impact on the U.S. weather forecast next winter,” according to AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada. “This generally results in a dry, mild winter in the south, a colder winter in the northeast and frequent storms in the northwest, although it is still too early to say what next winter will bring.”
What is the El Niño phenomenon?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than average. It occurs on average every two to seven years.
Her name means “little boy”, or “Christ child” in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 17th century with the appearance of unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.
The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which scientists call ENSO. The circulation oscillates between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average ocean waters in the region.
