It would be an understatement to say that Blake Snell's free agency has moved at a snail's pace.
Snell is a National League Cy Young winner, but is reportedly still no closer to signing a deal. We're just a few days away from pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training.
Snell, who is represented by Scott Boras, appears to be seeking a nine-year deal approaching the $300 million mark. The Yankees, Mets, Giants and Cubs have all been consistently linked with Snell. Signing Marcus Stroman would likely take the Yankees out of the lottery, and it's unclear if a deal would make sense for the Mets.
San Francisco is still searching for a big-name free agent. There is more room on the show's staff now that Ross Stripling has been replaced. But little evidence of Farhan Zaidi's reign suggests they will support what Boras is demanding.
The Cubs have a need in the rotation as well. With Stroman gone and Cody Bellinger still on the market, does Chicago want to commit to Snell when they're not a contender next year?
So, the short answer to Snell still being a free agent is a lack of suitors and a high asking price. Trades made with Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and others in recent years show that teams are willing to pay big for free agents. Snell doesn't seem to be getting the same attention as a free agent – why is that?
proven track record
Only seven pitchers have won the Cy Young in both leagues. Snell is one of them, along with the all-time greats Max Scherzer, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Gaylord Perry.
Snell's career is more complex than the other names listed. They were perennial Cy Young contenders. Snell has not received a Cy Young vote outside of his two-year run as a winner of the award.
This reflects the range of results Snell has achieved throughout his career and moving forward. He just led the Majors in ERA, just as he led the American League in ERA in 2018. He has twice led the Majors in hits per nine.
Between his Cy Young-winning campaigns, Snell had a 3.85 ERA over 413.2 innings. He was a little better than an average player during that period, but not by much.
Other Aces could make up for the year by taking up innings. Yes, that's less of a factor than it was a half-decade ago, but Snell's innings total is bound to be on the minds of front offices.
He only reached the 180 innings mark twice (both Cy Young years). He had a score of 107 in 2019, 128.2 in 2021, and 128 in 2022.
Since the start of 2018, 29 pitchers have thrown more innings than Snell. His 17.8 fWAR over that span is 12thy Among shooters with more than 700 innings. Only future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Scherzer and Gerrit Cole can improve on the Snell era.
Quality versus quantity
Snell's free agency represents many baseball conversations in the 2020s. Even with some not-so-great years between 2019 and 2022, Snell ranks among the sport's truly elite arms over the past six seasons.
However, heading into his age-31 season, it's not as if he's going to play more innings as he gets older. His control issues are part of the reason he left games early — he has the highest walk-per-nine rate among pitchers with over 700 innings pitched since the start of 2018.
The blockbuster stuff (which also increases his offer count) is what makes Snell a tantalizing prospect for any team that wins the bid. It was 98y Percentage in whiff rate and 94y Strikeout percentage last season. He has struck out 30.9% of hitters or better in each of the past six seasons.
The saga must end
Somebody It must be Sign Snell before opening day. The problem is that the asking price is in Yamamoto territory. That doesn't seem unreasonable for a two-time Cy Young winner, but that ignores concerns about his workload, leadership, and inconsistent performance.
In some ways, Snell's profile is similar to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray, who recently received free agent deals worth $110 million and $115 million, respectively. Snell has a longer record of success, but both Gusman and Ray arrived on the market after exceptional walk-on years.
Gausman has been excellent for the Blue Jays. Ray was a disappointment in Seattle, was injured, and was traded to the Giants that offseason. Snell is probably A better shooter than Gusman, but it's easy to see why front offices would be wary about paying Snell $30 million per season until his late 30s.
This might end up being a short-term, high-quality contract. That may seem like a risk for Snell given his fluctuating production throughout his career.
Instead, the more likely outcome is to conclude this contract with a $180 million contract filled with opt-outs.
