For Sharif (74 years old), a fourth term in office will be an opportunity to clear his name after his last premiership ended in 2017 due to corruption allegations. It may also represent an opportunity for him to strengthen his family's influence over Pakistani politics, allowing his daughter Maryam Nawaz to step out of the limelight and perhaps one day succeed him.
Sharif is no stranger to military pressure and legal issues, which prematurely ended his three terms as prime minister. Or general disturbances. “He has the tenacity of a stubborn survivor,” said Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed, one of his closest and longtime allies.
But the past two years have been remarkably politically turbulent even by Pakistani standards. Economic growth is hovering at historic lows, Khan is trying to campaign from prison, and a rise in armed attacks has led to political instability.
As prime minister, Sharif will have to contend with a military whose influence appears to be growing, and with angry Khan supporters who say their party has been unfairly marginalized. Khan was sentenced to prison in three separate cases over the past week alone, on charges ranging from corruption to revealing official secrets and illegally marrying his wife.
Sharif gave no indication that he would seek reconciliation with Khan, whom he accuses of causing his overthrow six years ago. “What you sow, you will reap,” Sharif told a crowd of supporters on Monday.
As Khan was about to become prime minister in 2018, Sharif was convicted on corruption charges and sentenced to 10 years in prison, although authorities allowed him to leave for London in 2019 to seek medical treatment. He was later declared a fugitive, but last year – amid signs of a rapprochement between Sharif and the Pakistani establishment – a court granted him temporary protection from arrest.
It paved the way for an orderly return last October to Lahore, his birthplace, where thousands of supporters welcomed Sharif, even though his party, the Pakistan Muslim League, has in recent years lost ground there to Khan's Pakistani party. PTI.
Sharif does not have Khan's rhetorical skill. But Sharif made up for it by campaigning on his credentials as a businessman and leader who had helped turn the economy around in the past, his supporters say.
Ehsan Iqbal Chaudhry, one of Sharif's closest political allies, said that while Pakistan faces one of its worst economic recessions in decades, “we will need help from friendly countries to overcome our serious economic problems.” His supporters hope that Sharif's status as one of the region's longest-serving statesmen will earn him the respect of the United States, China and other countries.
At a rally for Sharif on Monday, held in the snow-covered holiday town of Moree, his supporters credited the former prime minister with turning around the region's economic fortunes when in the 1990s he launched construction of a highway that attracted more tourists.
But in the empty restaurants and shops around Moree, reviews were less positive. After Khan was removed as Prime Minister in April 2022, Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif's younger brother, took over his duties, seeking frequent directions from Nawaz. But the Pakistani economy only sank further.
“Our last hope is Imran Khan,” insists Ishaanullah, 24, a donut seller.
Khan's continued popularity half a year after his imprisonment suggests that Thursday's elections are unlikely to provide the political and economic stability that many in Pakistan hope for.
Pakistani political analyst Sohail Warraich warned that Khan still has strong support bases among urban middle-class voters. He added, “Suppressing them for a long period may become very dangerous for the country.” Frustration was already evident when Khan was first arrested last May, leading to violent unrest across the country.
Some Pakistanis also worry that lingering questions in the Pakistani establishment about Sharif could contribute to political instability. “I don't think he's someone who could be a softer, more considerate, more flexible prime minister this time,” said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst at the Wilson Center. “That wouldn't reflect his nature.”
While Sharif calls for closer ties with India, Pakistan's arch-rival, for example, the Pakistani military has traditionally taken a tougher stance.
Maryam Aurangzeb, spokeswoman for Sharif's party, rejected the possibility of a rift between the army and Sharif after the elections. “Yes, there were individuals within the institutions who went against the will of the Constitution,” she said in an interview, referring to Sharif’s forced departure from office in 2017. But “Mr. She said that Sharif has always had a very balanced relationship with the institutions themselves.
As Sharif delivered one of his final messages to voters in Moree on Monday, only a few of his supporters felt confident.
Sikandar Nawaz, 29, said that even if Sharif gets a fourth term, he will likely be ousted before he can complete it.
Hussain reported from Islamabad. Haq Nawaz Khan in Islamabad contributed to this report.
