South Carolina: Chris Salley is exactly the kind of voter Joe Biden cannot afford to lose.
The intelligent, progressive and passionate 31-year-old was a rising star in the South Carolina Democratic Party until he left in October: angry at the president's response to the war in Gaza; Biden worries that he is too old to serve another term; Feeling as if young black voters are not being heard.
When Democrats hold their first presidential primary race in his state on Saturday, he plans not to vote, calling it a “coronation” of the incumbent “rather than a true Democratic contest.”
When asked about the possibility of a rematch between Biden and Donald Trump in November, his answer was consistent with those of many other Americans.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump may face off again in 2024.credit: AP
“It's the election that no one wanted, but everyone won,” says the former chairman of the Democratic Party in Anderson County in northwest state.
The first Democratic presidential nominating contest of 2024 already feels like a coronation, with an 81-year-old president who many Americans fear is unable to beat Trump, or won't last another four years if he does.
To be sure, there are other candidates — Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips and self-help expert Marianne Williamson — but the incumbent has the support and resources of the Democratic establishment. To this end, others have no chance.
But this week's primaries also contain warning signs for a political leader already facing record-low approval ratings and deep doubts about his ability to do the job.
Across South Carolina — a traditionally conservative state where Black voters helped Biden secure the presidential nomination in 2020 — feelings about the president are mixed.
Democrat Dean Phillips faces an uphill battle against the incumbent.credit: Bloomberg
Many have raised economic concerns about the high cost of living in America, where wages are not keeping pace with the prices of food, fuel or furniture.
Some raised concerns about Trump returning to the White House, and came out to vote against the former president — not necessarily for the current one. Others were very disappointed by the options on offer, or were not planning to vote at all.
“All I know is it's probably going to be Trump and Biden (in the November general election) and I don't want to vote for either one,” says Kathy Wilson, a conservationist who lives in Charleston. .
“I just want a balanced candidate: ideally, a Democrat who isn't too far left, but I would even vote for a Republican candidate who wasn't too far right and willing to listen to views on both sides.
“Also, couldn’t there be an age limit, where we prevent politicians from serving after the age of 75?”
Anjoan Seawright, a Democratic strategist based in South Carolina, says the Biden administration has accomplished a lot over the past four years, and that “Joe Biden is the only person who defeated Donald Trump, so I think that says a lot.”
Voters cast their ballots at a polling station in Rock Hill, South Carolina.credit: Bloomberg
But he acknowledges that the president could “double and triple his efforts” when it comes to expressing his accomplishments and vision for the future.
There is certainly a lot to talk about – record low unemployment rates; large-scale investments in infrastructure; Efforts to reduce student loan debt — but the key is selling that message so voters continue to show up for it.
But what if Trump somehow doesn't win the nomination or ends up dropping out of the race? Or what if Biden has some sort of health concern that requires another candidate to intervene? Is there an alternative plan for the Democrats?
“You can't activate or care about Plan B when you have a very strong Plan A,” Searight answers.
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He added: “Most of us feel very confident about this president's ability and political will to deliver what he promised. This is the Joe we know.”
South Carolina was also a test of Biden's standing among a coalition of voters who helped put him in power in the first place: young people and the black community.
This time four years ago, Biden's bid for the presidential nomination was on life support after poor performances against progressive candidate Bernie Sanders and rising Democratic star Pete Buttigieg in the first two primary contests.
But after finishing a dismal fourth in the Iowa caucuses and then falling to fifth in the New Hampshire primary, Biden won the endorsement of South Carolina Congressman James Clyburn, the most influential Democrat in the state and by extension the black community.
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders during a 2020 Democratic presidential primary debate.credit: AP
This gave him the momentum he needed to revive his campaign before Super Tuesday – when the largest number of states hold their presidential primaries – and ultimately win the White House.
Biden's 2020 success in South Carolina, along with its diverse population, was one reason Democrats decided to make South Carolina the first US state to hold a party primary race this year.
Iowa used to have that honor, followed by New Hampshire, but after a chaotic 2020 Iowa caucus rife with irregularities and delayed results, the Democratic National Committee rearranged the 2024 primary calendar at Biden's request.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a third-party candidate who has little chance of winning, but could cause an upset nonetheless.credit: AP
But a lot has changed since 2020. In fact, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll last month showed that Biden's failure to consolidate support in key parts of the coalition that elected him in 2020 left him narrowly trailing Trump, 39 percent to 37 percent. cent.
In another ominous sign, 17 percent said they would support an undesirable third-party candidate.
Among them is Sally. The most prominent third party candidate is Robert F. Kennedy, nephew of former President John Kennedy and cousin of Biden's US ambassador to Australia, Caroline Kennedy.
But Salley says he's more likely to vote for another, less well-known option: American philosopher, theologian and progressive activist Cornel West.
Cornel West, right, with progressive Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.credit: AP
While third-party candidates don't have much chance of winning, they are able to drain votes from the major parties and make a difference in a very close race.
“I love voting, but I need to vote based on my values, and this is the vote that will allow me to sleep at night,” Sally says.
“I am like many other Americans who believed that Biden was the man at one time to get the job done. But going forward, it is definitely time for a new generation of leaders.
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