Punxsutawney Phil predicted spring will arrive early Friday, and the Rochester area is still well behind normal snowfall, with temperatures warmer than normal. Rochester has only 34.4 inches of snow so far, which is 23.5 inches below normal for the first month of the year.
It is not uncommon for normal amounts to lag in Western and Central New York at the moment, as Buffalo is the only major city close to normal snowfall, with 53.6 inches from 60.7 inches.
what is going on? Why don't we expect snow in winter? Will Rochester get a real snow storm this season?
El Niño phenomenon behind reduced snowfall in Rochester, New York
Buffalo's snowfall totals are mostly attributable to two local lake-effect systems in the past month, including the storm that postponed the Buffalo Bills' Jan. 14 playoff game, according to National Weather Service Weather Service Buffalo's John Hitchcock.
While it's too early to tell if a major snowstorm is likely to hit the area this winter, the area is expected to have a dry week, meaning there's little chance of more snow falling in the next 10 days. Sorry, snow lovers: Temperatures are also expected to warm up, with temperatures likely to reach the 50s by next weekend.
The main reason for stingy snowfall totals? El Niño, Hitchcock said.
El Niño occurs when westerly trade winds along the equator weaken, causing warm water to push toward tropical South America. This distorts the Pacific jet stream and typically brings warm, dry conditions to the northeastern United States.
Hitchcock said whether next winter will be affected by the El Niño phenomenon or its opposite, the La Niña phenomenon, next year will not be known until around June.
Winter in Rochester, New York, isn't what it used to be. Where is all the snow?
Although this winter has been mild and lacking in snow, it's not much different from last year, when Rochester saw above-average temperatures and only 50.4 inches of snow, the lowest amount in 70 years.
According to the National Weather Service, Rochester had only 25 days below freezing during the three months of last year's meteorological winter (December, January and February).
- Overall, the 2022-2023 season was the seventh-warmest winter on record in Rochester, with the average temperature reaching 35 degrees. It also saw the eighth-fewest snowfall and eighth-fewest days with an inch of snow on the ground.
- There were three record high temperatures (November 5 and 6, 2022, and February 15, 2023) and four record high minimum temperatures (November 5, November 6, November 11, and December 30, 2022).
- There was a record low as well, falling on February 8, 2023 to minus 8 degrees.
Snowstorms in Rochester New York in February and March
While Rochester may be behind average normal snowfall, there is still the potential for significant amounts of snow in February and March. Rochester's two largest snowstorms began in February and continued into the following month.
The storm of 1900 saw snow fall for 63 straight hours, burying the city of Rochester under 43.5 inches of snow between February 28 and March 2. The Great Leap Day storm of 1984, which extended from February 27 to March 3, saw 32.7 inches of snow cover the city. region.
— Steve Howe covers weather, climate and lakes for the Democrat and Chronicle and his favorite type of sled is a sled. Do you have any idea about weather or climate change? Share with him at showe@gannett.com.
