PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (CBS) — Punxsutawney groundhog Phil didn't see his shadow on Groundhog Day 2024, which means early spring is on the way.
Like most February 2nds for the past 137 years, crowds gathered at Gobbler's Knob to hear Punxsutawney Phil predict.
Phil, the groundhog and alleged weather sage, showed up just before 7:30 a.m. to show the world what to expect for the rest of the winter.
Read more from CBS Pittsburgh: How did Groundhog Day start? Origins of Punxsutawney Phil
He didn't see his shadow, which meant it was probably early spring. Phil would much prefer to forecast another six weeks of winter, so this is unusual.
You can watch in the video player above.
The party is run by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, which cares for Phil and also maintains its own Cameo page — where, for just $199, you can purchase a video wishing your loved ones a happy Groundhog Day.
Groundhog Day is a huge tourist attraction for Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, a town in Jefferson County about a 90-minute drive northeast of Pittsburgh.
Pennsylvania Cable Network/PCN via CBS News Philadelphia
What time does Punxsutawney Phil look for his shadow?
Phil appeared sometime after 7 a.m. ET.
What does it mean if a groundhog sees his shadow?
Forecasting – or prognostication, as the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club calls it – focuses on what to expect in terms of weather over the next six weeks.
If Phil sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter.
If an elephant does not see his shadow, it means that spring is on the way.
The PGC maintains a list of Phil's predictions dating back to 1886 (although it appears to have been last updated in 2017). According to that list, Phil saw his shadow 103 times but did not see it 18 times. There is also 10 Days of the Groundhog There is no record of what Phil saw.
Is Groundhog Day accurate? How many times has Phil been right?
CBS News said it best – “He's a groundhog, not a meteorologist.”
Although Phil is kind, he was only right less than half the time, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported.
It also depends on how you calculate “six more weeks of winter” and the return of spring. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) analyzed Phil's forecast for 2022, in which Phil saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter.
Related: The strange history of Groundhog Day
Following this prediction, the United States saw temperatures slightly below average in February 2022, and warmer than average in March 2022.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says Vail's first forecast was accurate for many areas, but insufficient for many others. They rated him right 40% of the time between his first prediction and 2022.
In the end dis, Animal rights organization PETA said Phil's accuracy was like “flipping a coin.” He suggested replacing it with a giant coin on Groundhog Day to predict the continuation or cessation of winter weather.
What does an actual meteorologist think about Phil's predictions?
An hour before Phil appeared, CBS Philadelphia meteorologist Kate Bellew emerged from behind a tree trunk in our group and predicted the beginning of spring.
Because of this year's El Niño pattern, the Northeastern U.S. will likely have above-average temperatures through the rest of the winter, Kate said. El Nino winters tend to be milder, and we may see some spring-like days soon.
Why is Groundhog Day celebrated?
This tradition gained great popularity after the movie “Groundhog Day” directed by Bill Murray in 1993, but this custom has roots in European agricultural life, according to the British newspaper “Daily Mail”. News agency. February 2 marks the midpoint between the shortest day of the year at the winter solstice and the vernal equinox.
It is also a time of year that appears in the Celtic calendar and the Christian Candlemas.
And in eastern and central Pennsylvania, where people of German descent have observed the annual emergence of groundhogs from hibernation for centuries, there is a tradition of groundhog clubs and elephant-independent celebrations.
The first official trip to Gobbler's Knob, where Phil lives, was in 1997, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.
Read more: Another rodent that claims to “predict” the weather
There were weather forecasting groundhogs in at least 28 US states and Canadian provinces, and less formal celebrations everywhere. there New York-based groundhog named Staten Island Chuck, who was shot down by former Mayor Bill de Blasio 10 years ago today.
In Punxsutawney, the goal is more whimsy than precision.
“We know it's silly, we know it's fun,” Marcy Gallando, executive director of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, told the AP. “We want people to come here with a sense of humor.”
