To the public, Dr. Cordesman was known for his regular media appearances, including his work as an analyst for ABC News and an editorial contributor to news outlets including The Washington Post, during the pivotal events that included the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Led by the United States The 2003 invasion of Iraq and the current Israeli war on Gaza.
In Washington policy circles, Dr. Cordesman has had significant influence through his articles and analyzes on Middle East affairs and other security topics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, including directing a project to study shifts in Saudi Arabia's policy under the Crown Prince. Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Dr. Cordesman a lot Advisory roles included assisting the Ministry of Defense in assessing the regional ramifications resulting from Israel's victory over Arab forces in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Dr. Cordesman's expertise covers how actions taken by US political decision-makers and military leaders are ultimately implemented on the ground. These are what he called the “gray areas” of war and foreign affairs, where more intelligent strategies and realpolitik are needed and, in his view, the United States often fails to achieve.
He offered views that portrayed the United States' reliance on military superiority as a potential liability in times that call for more precise and nuanced policies. He said that America's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan provided countless lessons that it learned.
He described himself as a lukewarm supporter of the invasion of Iraq, saying he was “48 percent” convinced by intelligence reports about Saddam Hussein's arsenal of biological weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. Once these allegations were proven to be fabricated or false, Dr. Cordesman attacked US military and diplomatic mistakes in Iraq, even as he provided behind-the-scenes advice to commanders and envoys.
His early criticism turned into a big story in Iraq: how the administration of President George W. Bush faltered in rebuilding the post-Saddam Hussein government and armed forces in Iraq. This opened the doors to Iranian influence with Iraq's Shiite majority and the rise of Shiite militias – along with rival Sunni factions that formed their own insurgency, and at times had ties to Al Qaeda.
“We weren't really prepared to liberate Iraq,” Dr. Cordesman said in a 2006 interview. “Basically, we sent a bull to liberate a Chinese shop. As a result, the legacy is very devastating in many respects. …Iraqis are worse off, on average, as individuals, than they were before our invasion.”
As the Islamic State seized territory in 2014 — bringing American air power back to Iraq less than three years after the Americans officially ended combat operations — Dr. Cordesman framed the battles as part of the legacy of American chaos after the initially successful invasion.
“The United States has never set actionable grand strategic goals, made effective efforts to create a stable post-conflict Iraq, or demonstrated to the Iraqi people that its presence actually serves their interests,” he wrote in 2020 after ISIS was expelled from key areas. Such as the northern city of Mosul. (More than 4,400 American soldiers and at least 150,000 Iraqis were killed in the Iraq War.)
In Afghanistan, Dr. Cordesman has often ridiculed the idea that the Taliban and other factions can be defeated solely by military means. “Either we need long-term commitments, effective long-term resources, and strategic patience — or we don't need enemies,” he wrote in The Washington Post in 2008. “We will defeat ourselves.”
In 2021, the Taliban returned to power two decades after being ousted in the US-led invasion following the September 11 attacks, which were orchestrated by Al Qaeda from bases in Afghanistan.
Ultimately, Dr. Cordesman wondered whether the United States had pre-ordained its defeat years earlier by failing to build alliances with tribal leaders or develop effective Afghan armed forces. The war's death toll includes more than 2,400 American soldiers and tens of thousands of Afghans.
“The fundamental issue is not why the war was lost, but whether allowing it to escalate and prolong is worth its cost,” he wrote in an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
At times, Dr. Cordesman's view of the region embraced views that had little support in Washington, such as the need for an open dialogue with Iran. However, it was consistent with long-standing policy regarding Saudi Arabia as an indispensable security partner.
He maintained this view even after Saudi security agents, widely believed to be directed by the Crown Prince, slaughtered Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. Dr. Cordesman strongly criticized the Crown Prince over the killing of Khashoggi, a contributor to The Guardian newspaper. He divided opinion in the newspaper, but appealed to prevent the killing from disrupting strategic relations.
“Killing him intentionally or unintentionally was really stupid,” he wrote. “What could anyone in the Saudi royal court or Saudi intelligence have expected the end result to be?”
In one of his recent articles for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dr. Cordesman offered a bleak outlook for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, saying that the Gaza war has effectively extinguished the prospects for reaching settlements for peace on both sides. (Dr. Cordesman once faced sharp criticism from human rights groups in 2000 over a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies that reportedly suggested that Palestinian security forces should pressure militants using interrogation techniques that “verged” on torture.)
“In short, the real issue now is not how this war ends, but why it doesn’t end,” he wrote in early November. “Escalation to nowhere is not a strategy, but a disaster.”
Anthony Huff Cordesman was born in Chicago on August 2, 1939. His father was a graphic artist, and his mother was a sociologist whose work included a fellowship at the University of Chicago. His son said his family was forced to move from Oak Park, Illinois, to an area near the university after threats and protests over their help finding a home for a black chemist, Percy Julian, in the predominantly white suburb.
Dr. Cordesman graduated from the University of Chicago in 1960 with an M.A He earned a degree the following year from Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He obtained his doctorate from the University of London in 1963.
He worked in intelligence analytical positions at the Pentagon and State Department in countries including Egypt and Iran, and at NATO in Brussels and Paris. From 1988 to 1995, he was a National Security Assistant to Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) on the Senate Armed Services Committee and was a Civilian Assistant to the Deputy Secretary of Defense.
He joined CSIS in 2000 and was most recently the group's Chief Strategy Officer Emeritus.
The more than 50 books he has written or co-written cover a range of foreign policy and defense issues, including Iran's nuclear program and China's military expansionism in Asia. In his book Arab-Israeli Military Forces in the Era of Asymmetric Warfare (2006), Dr. Cordesman analyzed the capabilities of military forces throughout the Middle East.
His marriages to Sally Learmond and Carol Forrest ended in divorce. Survivors include a daughter, Bridget, from his first marriage, and sons, Justin and Alexander, from his second marriage.
Dr. Cordesman's prolific pen included a passion far beyond political experts and military officers. He contributes articles and reviews to the audiophile magazine, Absolute Audio, including the annual best-of awards list called the Golden Ear Awards.
He said he became fascinated with high-end audio equipment while working at a stereo store in Chicago as a college student to help with tuition. “My career was in national security, but I never lost touch with the upper class,” he wrote.
