- Summer heat may continue into early fall in the central and southern United States
- Prospects in the Northeast and California lean toward cooler than average conditions.
- It is uncertain how influential the El Niño phenomenon is.
The lingering heat of summer could extend into early fall in parts of the central and southern U.S. as relatively cool conditions embrace parts of Northeastern and California, according to the latest forecasts from The Weather Company, IBM Business, and Atmopheric G2.
Here's the big picture for August through October: Areas from western Texas to southeastern Arizona are expected to be hotter than average. This will come on the heels of a hot July in those areas. A wide swath from the Four Corners to most other areas in the southern to mid-Mississippi Valley and central Plains is also expected to be warmer than average.
Parts of the Northeast and California may tend to be a little cooler than average.
Keep in mind that this forecast is a general three-month trend. Therefore, we are likely to see warmer or cooler periods in each region of the country than shown below.
Questions remain about the El Niño factor. The ongoing El Niño event has been factored into the forecast, but there is uncertainty about how the atmosphere will respond to warm water accumulating in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Regarding El Niño, Dr. Todd Crawford said: “Looking ahead to the fall, we expect there to be some cold risk into October in the northern US. However, given the incredibly warm background state of the world, we are hesitant to go any further than that.” after”. Influencing weather patterns over the coming months.
Here's a breakdown of what to expect month by month.
The last month of summer will resemble how the season began. August temperatures are expected to be hotter than average in the northwest and most southern regions of the country. The Northeast can escape any prolonged periods of heat.
“We believe the pattern in August will resemble June more than July, with cooler temperatures, compared to normal, in more densely populated areas of the Northeast and California, reducing overall energy demand,” Crawford said.
Fall may stop being felt in the central United States during September. The refreshing cold fronts that bring a taste of fall may be less frequent for some as we make the transition this year. This is because most areas from the Plains to the Midwest and South are expected to see above-average temperatures.
The West Coast may be a little cooler than average, and the odds in the Northeast lean toward slightly warmer than average conditions.
October may have a cold northern and warm southern division. Areas from the central and southern Rocky Mountains and the Desert Southwest to the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast are likely to see above-average temperatures.
The best chance for cooler than average conditions will be in the northern tier and along the west coast.
Much of the Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and Southeast may be near average or slightly warmer.
Chris Dolce He has been a senior meteorologist at Weather.com for over 10 years after starting his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.
The Weather Company's primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment, and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
