The Houthi attack on an oil tanker off the coast of Yemen is a major escalation that indicates the failure of the British-American strategy to deter and eliminate the Houthi threat.
Who owns the ships is a murky business. The controversy over British links with the Marlin Luanda is just a red herring.
The point is The Houthis They say they attacked it because they believed it was British owned.
Follow the latest: The United States destroys a Houthi anti-ship missile in Yemen
This is important because this week the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak He would have authorized another A round of air raids To send a message to the Houthis: Stop attacking international shipping in the Red Sea.
It was always a gamble. Either this show of force will make the Houthis think twice about what they stand to lose from British-American attacks that destroy their missiles, radars and other assets.
Or it could further stir up the Houthi hornet's nest and enrage them, prompting them to redouble their efforts and do their best.
Evidence from last night's attack points to the latter. The Houthi attacks raise the stakes in several ways. They're saying, “We've seen your airstrikes and we're raising the stakes.”
It is an escalation in the way they respond as well. The oil tanker they attacked was not even in the Red Sea. Its payload is also important. The international economy is the most sensitive to attacks on fuel.
The Prime Minister and Foreign Ministry officials insist that what is happening in the Red Sea has nothing to do with what is happening in Gaza. this is not true.
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The Prime Minister says the strikes are not related to Gaza
Large-scale Houthi attacks on international shipping began a month after the Israeli attack there, and they say they are acting in solidarity with their Arab brothers and sisters there.
You can question the sincerity of this solidarity. Skeptics might say it's more about winning support on the Arab street. It certainly achieves its goal.
But the fact remains that the Houthis started this because of the war in Gaza, and they will likely end it when it ends.
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As Marco Forgione, Director General of the Export and International Institute told another channel today, one way to end attacks on shipping in the Red Sea is for Israel to end its offensive in Gaza.
Despite this, Britain and America have so far stood firm in their support for the Israeli campaign, despite the killing of more than 25,000 Palestinians.
British and American attempts to separate their military action against the Houthis from Israel and Gaza are understandable but misguided.
But what is most worrying for Downing Street, the White House and their military planners is that their actions appear to be counterproductive. To make the Red Sea safe again, the allies will have to completely eliminate the Houthi threat to shipping.
Photo: Gwenael Guedez
This is impossible as long as the Houthis maintain missile and drone capabilities, no matter how small, in the Yemeni desert.
The allied attacks on the Houthis made them heroes in Yemen and beyond. In this sense, instead of being weakened, the air strikes have strengthened them.
The Houthis are stifling international trade and have tempted the British and Americans to launch attacks that could make matters worse.
