The war has destroyed most of the northern part of the Strip and killed more than 25,000 people, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health. The ministry does not differentiate between civilians and fighters, but says that 70% of the dead are women and children.
The Washington Post spoke with seven current and former Israeli officials and reservists about the progress of the war in Gaza and its ultimate goals. Most spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military strategy.
“The war has damaged Hamas as a terrorist entity, but this is not a three-month mission,” a military official said.
At least 9,000 militants have been killed so far, according to the Israeli military, less than a third of the 30,000 Hamas fighters they are estimated to command. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and his senior aides are still at large. The movement does not publish figures on the number of people killed in the war, but a Hamas official denied the Israeli figures. “I think the Israelis are trying to embellish their accomplishments,” he told The Washington Post, speaking on the condition of anonymity in line with rules set by the group.
Hamas's relatively long-range rocket launches from Gaza, which numbered in the thousands at the beginning of the war, have almost stopped. Israel says it destroyed thousands of weapons stockpiles, missile production sites and tunnel corridors over three months of door-to-door battles. But without a “day after” strategy, officials say, these achievements could be fleeting.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to insist that the complete elimination of Hamas remains the goal of the war. “This is not just about hitting Hamas, and this is not another round with Hamas — this is a complete victory,” he said on Thursday. Since the beginning of the conflict, military leaders have been taking a more realistic view, believing that under current conditions, the group can be weakened but not destroyed. As Israel begins to scale back its operations in Gaza, this unspoken tension is beginning to spill over into public opinion.
Gadi Eisenkot, the former army commander whose son was killed in Gaza last month, accused Netanyahu in a recent interview of telling “tall tales” about the war.
“No strategic achievement has been reached,” Eisenkot said. “We did not destroy Hamas.”
Twenty-one Israeli soldiers were killed Monday when Hamas militants fired a shell at a tank near two buildings slated for demolition, the Israeli military said, setting off the explosives — the deadliest incident for Israeli forces in Gaza. Since the start of the war, 217 soldiers have been killed.
Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari told reporters on Tuesday that the number of troops and the intensity of fighting in Gaza will continue to fluctuate.
“More reservists will be needed on all battlefields, so the IDF is working by freeing up forces and focusing our activities,” he said.
Israeli officials did not reveal the number of forces still in Gaza and the number of forces that had withdrawn. There are still at least three combat brigades on the ground, according to an IDF statement issued earlier this month. The Golani Brigade, a special infantry unit, withdrew from Shujaiya in Gaza City last month.
Some soldiers have been repositioned along the northern border with Lebanon, where the threat of a broader war looms; Thousands more have returned home, to their jobs and families, which the government hopes will help revive Israel's war-torn economy.
The military official said the ground and air operation in Gaza effectively dismantled the majority of the five Hamas brigades – made up of 24 battalions, each containing up to 1,400 fighters. The official said that more than 100 leaders were killed.
Israeli officials said that 17 of Hamas's 24 battalions, mostly in the central and northern parts of the Strip, have been disabled to the point that they more closely resemble small groups of fighters than proper military units. But officials admit there are thousands of militants.
“It changes from structure to pile, but the pile can still resist you,” the dean said. General Assaf Orion, a reserve officer who was on active duty after the Hamas attacks. He added: “This does not mean that Hamas is dead, but they certainly cannot do what they did on October 7.”
The Hamas tunnel network turned out to be much more extensive than the IDF's previous estimates, extending more than 300 miles in the south alone, according to the military official. The Israeli army has discovered more than 5,600 tunnels, according to a former security official familiar with the intelligence, and many have been destroyed. But the scale of the underground network, built secretly over many years, means it is unlikely to be completely dismantled.
The former security official said the majority of Israeli assassinations in Gaza targeted low- and mid-ranking members of Hamas — part of a strategy to strip the group of a “critical mass” of fighters.
He added that the Israeli army “has become rigid,” and is tasked with maintaining control over quiet areas rather than trying to gain more territory.
In northern and central Gaza, the pace of war has slowed enough to enable some Palestinians to return to their destroyed neighborhoods, although rebuilding is a distant hope. In the south, more than a million displaced people are gathering near the Egyptian border. Aid groups warn that diseases are spreading, and that more than 90 percent of Gaza's population does not have enough to eat.
However, small cells of Hamas fighters, hidden in tunnels and building rubble, still pose a deadly threat. After launching a barrage of rockets from the Strip last week toward the southern city of Netivot, Israeli forces were able to quickly surround the launch site in central Gaza and kill several fighters, according to a military official familiar with the operation — a foreshadowing of this type of missile. Of raids and targeted strikes that are likely to characterize the next phase of the war.
But how can Israel prevent a weakened Hamas from rebuilding? This remains an open and confusing question for military leaders. The entity that ultimately rules Gaza — whether it is the Palestinian Authority, as the United States calls for, or an international force, an idea floated by some Israeli officials — will determine whether IDF forces can operate from permanent locations inside the Strip or respond only from bases. . Across borders.
Opinion polls show that remaining inside would be tantamount to reoccupying Gaza, a goal supported by far-right politicians but strongly opposed by Washington and most Israelis. A long-term security presence, which would make Israel responsible for Palestinian civilians and expose troops to constant threats, was dismissed as a “nightmare scenario” by most of the security establishment, according to the military source.
“We were going to sit ducks,” he said.
Operating from outside the Strip will be practically possible, but it will require a security partnership with the ruling authorities, similar to Israel’s agreement with the Palestinian Authority in parts of the occupied West Bank.
Orion said that “mowing the lawn” — the term given to Israel’s previous strategy of creating temporary deterrence by reducing, not eliminating, the capabilities of Palestinian armed groups — tends to become more dangerous over time. He cited Israeli army raids in the West Bank, which have become increasingly deadly for both sides over the past year as weapons flow into Palestinian refugee camps and armed resistance escalates.
He said: “As you can see, mowing grass in the West Bank has become more difficult and more mobile.” “Gaza represents a much higher level of challenge.”
The former Israeli security official said that without a coordinated international effort to limit Hamas's power in post-war Gaza, the risk of its fighters regrouping will remain forever.
The Hamas army, not its political elements, has been dealt with effectively so far. But what will happen now in Gaza, and how Hamas will now react politically and militarily – how Hamas will reactivate its forces, is not yet clear.”
Other crucial security issues loom on the horizon: Israeli military officials say preventing Hamas from rearming with foreign weapons will require securing the Rafah crossing on the Gaza-Egypt border. Egyptian officials are already resisting an Israeli plan to maintain control of the buffer zone along the border, where smuggling tunnels have spread in the past.
There is also the pressing issue of more than 100 hostages still being held in Gaza. Relatives of the hostages set up camp over the weekend outside Netanyahu's private home, calling on the government to do everything necessary to secure their release. Last month, the Israeli army mistakenly killed three Israelis who fled from their captors.
“If the State of Israel gives up its hostages,” the 1,200 soldiers and citizens killed on October 7 “will have died in vain,” Hen Avigdori posted Sunday on X, formerly Twitter. His wife and 12-year-old daughter were detained in Gaza for nearly two months before being released during a short-term humanitarian truce in late November.
He wrote: “There is no victory without the return of the hostages.”
Hendricks reported from Jerusalem. Sarah Dadoush in Beirut contributed to this report.
