For the third time in the past four years, the Buffalo Bills' offseason plans will be weighed after a playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. It's a feeling the Bills and their fans — to coin a phrase from Taylor Swift, a huge Chiefs fan — know all too well. But will this season be different? Can they remain among the elite in the AFC or is Buffalo's Super Bowl window closed?
Bills offseason plans for the 2024 season
If we take a proper review of the Bills season, this can be considered a successful season. Buffalo was 6-6 and barely hanging on in the playoff race. But the Bills turned things around amid a slew of injuries, winning five in a row to end the regular season and winning the AFC East for the fourth straight season.
However, after five straight trips to the playoffs under Sean McDermott, the chance to win a championship may be about to close. Are the Bills poised to remain true contenders in 2024?
Of gold?
For starters, the Bills have a long list of players headed to free agency. Veteran safety Micah Hyde could be gone after seven years in Buffalo. Buffalo's defensive line could also require wholesale changes as Leonard Floyd, Shaq Lawson, AJ Epenesa, Jordan Phillips and Daquan Jones are all set to become free agents.
On the offensive side of the ball, wide receiver Gabe Davis and running back Latavius Murray are notable free agents.
The case of Josh Allen
Josh Allen is by no means past his prime or capable of playing at a championship level. He put together another strong campaign in 2023 and gave the Bills a chance to make a deep run in the playoffs. He will be 28 years old at the start of the 2024 season and still looks like a quarterback capable of winning a Super Bowl.
The caveat is that he will start getting more under Buffalo's salary cap. Allen was cap hit at $18.6 million in 2023 with that number jumping to $47.1 million in 2024. That will contribute to the Bills having the fourth-largest salary cap shortfall in the NFL at the start of the offseason. In other words, the Bills won't have much payroll flexibility to surround Allen with the help he needs to lead Buffalo to the Super Bowl.
Get good health
The good news for the Bills is that they can expect to improve in 2024 once they get healthy. Once again, cornerback Tre'Davious White missed Buffalo's playoff run due to injury.
The Bills also saw a rash of linebacker injuries in 2023, most notably Matt Milano. The team entered the divisional round of the playoffs with only four healthy players. Once they hit the reset button in 2024 and get healthy, the Bills will start to feel better about where they are in certain situations.
What then?
As previously mentioned, the Bills will enter the offseason with a significant salary cap shortfall. Therefore, Buffalo will likely start the offseason by trading or cutting key players to reach the cap.
Defensively, White and safety Jordan Poyer are potential victims of the salary cap. The same goes for offensive linemen Mitch Morse and Dion Dawkins. Buffalo will likely have to cut several players to reach the cap before starting to rebuild the roster for 2024.
Is the window closed?
As long as Allen is at the Bills in his prime, it's hard to say their championship window is closed. Despite being thwarted by the Chiefs three times in the past four years, Buffalo has come close to topping the perennial AFC favorite. Allen is still at the point in his career when he will be able to carry the Bills on his back if need be.
However, it's impossible to ignore the fact that Buffalo's offensive line, defensive line and secondary could all undergo wholesale changes this offseason. The offensive skill players around Allen will be largely the same. But the rest of the roster is likely weaker and needs to be rebuilt over multiple seasons. That doesn't close the window on the Bills, though, as Buffalo's chances of winning the championship next season will be significantly diminished compared to past seasons.
