With DeSantis withdrawing and Haley rising over the past few weeks, the big question is whether she can beat the front-runner — or at least turn things around as they head into the next round of primaries that will determine who will compete against Joe Biden. In November.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Manchester, New Hampshire.credit: AP
If Trump wins a large majority in New Hampshire — one week after dominating the Iowa caucuses — he will appear unstoppable as he moves into the South Carolina race next month, where polls currently indicate he is expected to defeat Haley in her home state.
That, in turn, would push him to Super Tuesday on March 5 — when the largest number of states hold primaries and caucuses — and eventually be announced as the GOP nominee at the Republican convention in June.
But if Haley gets a good result, it could prompt voters tired of Trump's drama to rally behind another candidate — and that's exactly what she's counting on.
“I voted for Donald Trump twice; I was proud to serve in his administration; “I agree with a lot of his policies, but, right or wrong, chaos ensues,” Haley said while campaigning in New Hampshire this week.
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“And we can't have a country in chaos, a world on fire, and four more years of chaos. We won't survive it.”
For now, conventional wisdom suggests that Trump's march to the White House is all but certain.
According to a CNN and University of New Hampshire poll released this week, Trump is the first choice of 50 percent of likely Republican primary voters, widening his lead over Haley, who has 39 percent support. DeSantis received 6 percent, which reinforced his decision to withdraw from the race.
One by one, Trump's former opponents also endorsed him: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum; biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; And even US Senator Tim Scott, whom Haley appointed to the Senate when she was governor of South Carolina.
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And now DeSantis is on his side, too — the man Trump mocked for months as “Ron Meatball” or “Ron Dissanctimonius.”
In doing so, he cited a pledge all candidates must sign as a condition for participating in the first Republican debate in August: to endorse the chosen candidate.
Trump appears confident, too, as he travels around New Hampshire escalating his attacks, many of which are personal.
He has often cited Hailey's first name, “Nimarata” Nikki Randhawa, as a racist dog whistle to remind people that she is the daughter of Indian immigrants.
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He refers to her as “Bird Brain” to insult her intelligence, and has told supporters at his rallies that she is “not smart enough” to be president.
He began spreading conspiracy theories suggesting that she was not eligible to run for president because her parents were not US citizens when Haley was born.
But Haley took it seriously. Since announcing her candidacy last year, the 52-year-old has campaigned on the idea that “it is time to get America back on track.”
In addition to her call for a “new generation leader,” she has also pushed for term limits in Congress and mental competency tests for politicians over the age of 75.
But her strongest argument is when she cites polls that show she is the only Republican in the race who can beat Biden in a head-to-head matchup. One Wall Street Journal The poll put her ahead by 17 points.
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As Haley explained to voters this week: “This is more than just the presidency — it gets everything back on track, from the House, the Senate, the county boards, the school boards — all of that stuff. We were marching to D.C. with a mandate.”
As much as Trump dominates this contest, there is little way for Haley to shake up the race.
Like Iowa, New Hampshire is whiter and more rural than any average US state, but nearly 40 percent of its voters are independents.
These voters tend to be more moderate, and will be able to cast their ballots at the ballot box.
New Hampshire also has a popular moderate Republican governor, Chris Sununu, who endorsed Haley over Trump.
All of these factors could benefit the former UN ambassador, whose appeal is almost exclusively to moderate voters and college graduates.
Moreover, New Hampshire is a state known for its inconsistent streak and electoral upsets.
In 2008, for example, George W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses and was the favorite in Iowa — but faced a huge upset from John McCain.
Likewise, in 2008, Barack Obama shocked the Democratic establishment by winning Iowa against Hillary Clinton, but narrowly lost to her in the New Hampshire primary.
Could this be Nikki Haley's moment to shine?
“I'm used to people belittling me. It's always fun,” she said while meeting with voters at a restaurant minutes after DeSantis' announcement.
