This story is excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And sign up to get it regularly in your inbox.
The Padres – as you've read here previously – have a roster full of shortstops.
Their star third baseman? It was a short stop. Their star right fielder? It was a short stop (and probably still is). Torch their second baseman? Elite defensive shortstop. Their starting first baseman? A useful player with a shortstop on his resume.
Yes, AJ Preller loves his shortstops. And when the Padres' general manager had money to spend last season, guess where he chose to spend it?
On Xander Bogaerts, the incumbent and starter is there until further notice. A year into the 11-year contract Bogaerts signed last winter, there are already questions about the wisdom of that deal, given its convenience. Then again, Bogaerts could go a long way toward answering some of these questions with a bounce-back 2024 season.
But more on that in a moment. First, here's a look at where things stand for the Padres in brief:
On the 40-man roster: Bogaerts, Ha Seung Kim, Matthew Batten, Egoe Rosario (and of course, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth could play there too)
Top 30 Prospects: Jackson Merrill (No. 2), Rosario (No. 16), Roseman Verdugo (No. 21)
Is Bogaerts definitely the starter at short?
While we have yet to receive a definitive answer to this question from Preller or manager Mike Shildt, this is clearly the most likely outcome. In fact, when asked about his 2024 infield at the winter meetings last month, Preller put it succinctly: “I liked the infield we had last year.”
If the Padres do get him back, it would mean Bogaerts returns to shortstop, where he was solid defensively last year, worth 3 points above average according to Statcast. In the past three seasons, he's gone from below average defensively to downright good.
In MLB Network's Top 10 Right Now series, Bogaerts is ranked as the No. 3 player in MLB. Which may make this question seem strange, but it's worth asking:
He should Bogaerts be a short starter?
This would be a more difficult question if Kim didn't adapt seamlessly to second base. Turns out Kim, an elite defensive player, is also an elite defensive second baseman.
The Padres can manage the current situation. In fact, Status Quo may be one of the best quarterbacks in the sport.
But that ignores the fact that Kim is, clearly, a better defensive player than Bogaerts. The Padres promised Bogaerts a starting role in 2023. They left the rest open. Currently, there are other factors that complicate the matter. (Specifically: Kim being a year away from free agency, and perhaps the need to use him at third base early in the season while Manny Machado recovers from elbow surgery.)
But shortstops don't tend to age well. If Bogaerts' defense dips, he won't be in the position long.
What do the Padres need from Bogaerts in 2024?
Simply put: more than they got in 2023. Beyond the fast start and good finish, Bogaerts' first season in San Diego was a disappointment. He finished the year hitting a respectable .285/.350/.440. But all of those numbers were his lowest since 2017 — not to mention that Bogaerts hit .192 with men in scoring position and .244 in late and close quarters.
Of course, it's impossible to ignore Bogaerts' production before and after he suffered a blow to his left wrist in late April. Bogaerts received a cortisone shot on his wrist during the All-Star break, and it's probably no coincidence that his numbers were much better in the second half.
There is a path to a redemption arc in 2024 if Bogaerts puts up his usual numbers. (For reference, Bogaerts hit .301 with an .880 OPS over his final five seasons in Boston.) But first, he'll need to get healthy.
What is the future in short after Bogaerts?
Bogaerts is under contract with San Diego for another decade. At some point during that period, he will give up his position and move elsewhere. (Maybe to second. Maybe to first. At the time of his signing, third base was a potential long-term destination, but the Padres extended Machado shortly thereafter, and long-term roster planning became a bit difficult.)
However, the future is bright in the shortstop, especially with the signing of Leodalis de Vries, the highest-rated international player, on Monday. De Vries is a switch-hitter with a rare combination of patience and pop at the plate. Meanwhile, Merrill remains the Padres' No. 2 prospect and could be poised for a major league breakthrough in 2024.
There's also the possibility that the Padres could extend Kim (which we covered earlier this week). If so, he and Bogaerts might turn things around. Whatever the final outcome, the Padres have options.
Despite all the current question marks, shortstop is still a position of strength in San Diego. Even in a down year, Bogaerts was a 4.4 WAR player. He hit .321/.364/.493 in the second half — which is, quite frankly, what the Padres paid for.
After spending his entire career in Boston, 2023 will be a tough transition for Bogaerts. But, more comfortable in year two, he should be in line for a bounce-back season.
