Jan. 14 (UPI) — Many cities across the United States may become ghost towns by 2100, according to new research published Thursday.
“Nearly half of the roughly 30,000 U.S. cities will experience some type of population decline,” researchers from the University of Chicago in Illinois wrote in a journal article published in the journal Nature Cities.
Big cities in the Northeast and Midwest are already slowly losing population. The researchers found that while cities in the South and West are seeing population increases, some larger cities in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee are slowly depopulating.
Cleveland, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh could see population declines of 12 to 23 percent by 2100, while cities like Louisville, New Haven, and Syracuse — which do not currently show declines — will likely see declines soon.
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“You might see a lot of growth in Texas right now, but if you looked at Michigan 100 years ago, you would probably think that Detroit would be the largest city in the United States by now,” Sybille Deribel, one of the researchers, told Scientific American.
The study briefly looked at the potential causes of these population changes, ranging from the effects of an aging population to changes in the economy, wages and access to transportation — as well as things like climate change and similar factors.
“In the Northeast and Midwest, urban cities with lower median household incomes are more likely to see population declines over time,” the study authors wrote.
“Such trends could exacerbate the social and economic challenges faced by low-income families in these areas, given that declining populations can create concerns about the affordability of infrastructure services.”
At the same time, research has shown that increasingly dense urban cities in the South and West tend to rely more on vehicles. The study was conducted by a team commissioned by the Illinois Department of Transportation to analyze the challenges the state faces over time.
“In the Midwest, urban cities with low and high vehicle ownership, defined as a percentage of the population with two or more vehicles per household, are likely to gain population along with some suburban cities and exurbs of cities with high vehicle ownership,” the study authors wrote. low”.
The study also looked at the effects of migration that may be limiting urban population decline in some areas. Small towns like those on New York's Long Island and around Chicago that are currently experiencing population loss may continue to grow thanks to immigration.
“The number of empty cities in the Northeast and Midwest will be higher than in the South and West regions (although many cities in the North and Midwest will still grow),” the study says. “In California, the South Coast may lose population, while the North Coast may gain population.”
