Beijing: China's population will decline at a faster pace in 2023 with births falling to a record low, accelerating a demographic transition that poses long-term challenges for a government already facing economic pressures and a real estate crisis.
The population in the world's second-largest economy fell for a second year, by more than 2 million people, to 1.41 billion in 2023, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday. This decline has doubled from 2022, when the population shrank for the first time since 1961, the last year of the Great Famine under former leader Mao Zedong.
Deaths rose to 11.1 million, about 700,000 more than the previous year and the highest since 1960. The office does not break down deaths by cause, but deaths related to Covid-19 likely contributed to the rise after authorities suddenly ended strict pandemic restrictions in December. 2022 and led to an explosion of injuries.
China says its population has fallen by more than two million, reaching 1.41 billion in 2023, as births continue to decline.credit: Greene Quinlan
The decline in births could pose further challenges to the economy, which met its official growth target last year but is still affected by factors including weak domestic demand and confidence.
An aging population and falling birth rates “will lead to structural changes in economic growth, especially in consumption,” said Shen Ming, managing director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co.
A total of 9.02 million babies were born in 2023, the lowest level since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949. The number of newborns has declined steadily since the 1960s. The slight rise in 2016 after the government relaxed the one-child policy was short-lived, and subsequent measures to boost births did little to halt the decline.
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Other East Asian countries are also struggling to reverse the decline in birth rates.
South Korea's total fertility rate – the expected number of children per woman – fell to 0.72 in 2023, the lowest in the world, and could fall further to 0.65 next year. The government has taken measures to encourage more births, such as tripling monthly allowances and lowering mortgage interest rates for parents.
