NB: The Pittsburgh Steelers – Buffalo Bills AFC Wild-Card game originally scheduled for 1pm ET Sunday has been moved to 4:30pm today.
After ending the regular season with a five-game winning streak, the Buffalo Bills have put themselves in prime position to host their postseason opener, against the worst qualifying team ever in conference history. The No. 2 Bills will face the No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers, and if successful, Buffalo will host another playoff game next weekend.
But in all likelihood, this game won't be a routine one. Monday's weather forecast for Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, calls for a freezing temperature of 18 degrees, with it feeling closer to 3 degrees at game time. The good news for fans is that except for a few scattered flurries before kick-off, there should not be any rain during the match.
The game, which was scheduled for Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, was postponed until Monday due to safety concerns for fans trying to travel to the game due to a winter storm in the area. The Bills said the decision to postpone the game was made in consultation with the Steelers and New York Governor Kathy Hochul “in the interest of public safety” as the region prepared for the storm.
The travel ban that included Buffalo was lifted at 6 a.m. ET. According to the Buffalo Police Department.
What does the game look like overall, and how will the weather affect things for the Bills and Steelers? Here are several thoughts on the game, as well as predictions.
Pros and cons of foul weather defense vs. Steelers
The Steelers come into the game with a reputation for being a run-heavy offense, and they've had a lot of success doing so since firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada in late November. So, when there is the possibility of a game with bad weather and limited possessions, it can level the playing field a bit for the team with less talent if they can run the football efficiently. The Steelers fit that mold, which could lead to a closer result than they would have under normal weather conditions. The Steelers' offensive line plays hard and looks to win games through physicality, something Bills coach Sean McDermott is preparing his team for. This style of run blocking can be an advantage in poor weather conditions, and having the physical ability for a running back to exploit it like Najee Harris does all builds the case for the Steelers. And if that can help them control time of possession, it creates fewer opportunities for the Bills to score points. That should have the Bills a little worried going into the game, but it's all a worst-case scenario and not looking at the whole picture.
Although the Steelers are a good rushing unit, they are also starting a quarterback who started the year as their third option. Mason Rudolph helped the Steelers put up more points, but it was only in last week's foul weather game that Rudolph's passing limitations really stood out. He is more of a short to medium rhythm bowler than someone who drives the ball down the field. Without complete confidence in making him a major part of their offensive outlook, it could actually help the Bills' defensive structure. It will be difficult to limit the Steelers' ground game in potentially adverse weather conditions, although it will be much harder to do so if Rudolph is a significant threat to break down their defense in the air. This could allow the Bills to comfortably bring down Jordan Poyer inside the box and contribute to limiting the Steelers' running game.
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The NFL is monitoring the Bills-Steelers game as the storm approaches
The Bills' defensive line will play a key role in keeping the second-level defenders clean off blocks, and we could see high percentages from defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Daquan Jones, along with run stuffing for defensive ends Greg Rousseau and Shaq Lawson. Since the Steelers thrive more between the tackles, this will at least condense the zone enough to try to help limit the Steelers' best means of moving the ball. Between the pros and cons, it will likely come together somewhere in the middle, but the Bills' talent at defending in key positions could give them the edge to win these cuts more often than not.
In the McDermott era, there have been two big weather plays worth noting. There was a snowy game against the Indianapolis Colts in 2017 when the weather went from being clear in the parking lots in the morning to a bunch of snow falling on all the players midway through the game with the wind. Then, there was the whirlwind game against the New England Patriots in 2021, which affected the offensive tactics. In the Colts game, the Bills ran the ball 51 times and passed it just 16 times — a pass attempt rate of 23.9 percent. Against the Patriots, the Bills ran the ball just 25 times against 30 pass attempts, a pass attempt rate of 54.6 percent.
The difference between these two games? Having Josh Allen in the starting lineup. Back when the Bills were scouting quarterbacks prior to the 2018 NFL Draft, finding someone who could play through Buffalo's circumstances when they presented themselves was part of their evaluation that Allen passed with flying colors. So, with the weather likely to get worse, it at least keeps the door open for the Bills to still retain their successful identity.
“Just because Josh has those qualities, you never know what it's going to look like on Sunday at 1 p.m. Or at 2 p.m. Or at 3 p.m.,” McDermott said Friday. “But having that ability to at least have that option , it doesn't always happen. And in the case of attacking football in general, most people would say: “We don't have a choice.” So at least we have the option, at least at this point, to entertain that.
Conversely, the Steelers would start Rudolph, which would likely push them toward being far more one-dimensional than the Bills were with Allen. Now, if the wind speeds get closer to 50 to 60 mph, which is expected Saturday night before the game, that reduces everyone's ability to throw. But the current forecast is for the wind to slow as kickoff approaches, which would open up the opportunity for the Bills to throw more capable. But even without throwing, just having Allen drop back to pass could be an advantage given how dangerous he is as a scrambler in an environment like this. Allen's mobility will be a crucial component in moving the ball in the elements to help the ground game be as effective as it has been during the Bills' five-game winning streak.
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Why Tyrel Dodson's availability could be huge
When Thursday's practice began, it was a notable absence for the Bills without starting outside linebacker Tyrel Dodson, especially after he was a limited participant in Wednesday's drive. His absence cast doubt on his ability to play. But after McDermott got an encouraging update on Dodson on Friday, the full-back returned to the training field. It's a marked improvement heading into the game, and Dodson's presence could be especially important for this opponent under these likely weather conditions.
Dodson can be a flawed defender in coverage, but as a run defender, he can be an integral part of the Bills' defensive puzzle. In an environment that can result in the Steelers running the ball a large percentage of the game, Dodson, who likes to get downhill to block a rushing passer, can do so shamelessly. Dodson's lack of speed wouldn't be a major concern either, given how the Steelers like to rush between the tackles and how well weather conditions can neuter some speed to the outside. Replacing Baylon Spector's inexperience with the specific quality of Dodson's running prowess could give the Bills a huge advantage in dealing with the Steelers' rushing attack. If he plays and is able to make stops at or behind the line of scrimmage, it will go a long way toward a win for the Bills.
Although the Bills entered the Miami Dolphins game completely healthy, they left with four injuries to key contributors. Dodson was one of them, but the list also includes wide receiver Gabe Davis, starting cornerback Rasul Douglas and dime safety Taylor Rapp. Davis and Raab were disqualified, with Douglas receiving the questionable mark despite not practicing at all during the week.
In the case of Douglas and Rapp, if weather conditions are as bad as expected, it reduces the impact of not having either of these players. While Douglas is a good tackler and larger cornerback, backup Dane Jackson has proven to be a solid defender and tackler. It was the coverage piece that plagued Jackson the most. With Rapp, if the Steelers run the ball as much as we expect, that would reduce the need for Rapp to enter the game as a third safety.
Unfortunately for the Bills, Davis would have been an important part of their offense for the type of game setup that would likely come along. Davis is an excellent blocker in his position and has proven to be an excellent improvisational runner when plays break down in the pocket. Both of these skills will help the Bills a lot in moving the ball consistently, but they will need to rely on a combination of Trent Sherfield, Khalil Shakir, or the Bills entering the 12 to have the best path to offensive success.
Expected training team heights: RB Leonard Fournette, WR Andy Isabella
Expected inactivity: RB Latavius Murray, WR Gabe Davis, OL Alec Anderson, DE Kingsley Jonathan, DT Bona Ford, CB Russell Douglas, S Taylor Rapp
Prediction: Bills 20, Steelers 9
Weather is the big story and can be a legitimate factor in the path to victory. The Steelers have a reputation for being able to run the ball, although the Bills' offensive line doesn't get as much credit as it deserves for having a stellar season with good run blockers in left tackle Dion Dawkins, right guard Ocyrus Torrence and right tackle Spencer Brown. With his ability to run with his back, use Allen as a rusher and have the option to be two-dimensional with Allen as a passer, I think the Bills came out victorious despite the weather conditions. It will likely be a tighter game than many would expect in a normal weather game, but the Bills have shown the ability to win in a variety of ways during their winning streak. This should give them an advantage in learning how to deal with another set of circumstances. I think the Bills move the ball well enough on three or four drives to give themselves the scoring advantage they need over what can be a one-dimensional Steelers offense.
(Photo by Josh Allen: Perry Knots/Getty Images)
