Republican voters in Iowa are getting their usual moment in the spotlight right now, as they are scheduled to hold their first caucuses in the country at 8 p.m. Eastern Monday, kicking off the 2024 GOP presidential race.
But it doesn't feel like much of a contest, as former President Donald Trump enjoys a significant lead in most opinion polls over rivals like Nikki Haley, his former ambassador to the United Nations, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
So the main focus is whether DeSantis or Haley can finish second, and how close they are to the former president.
The other key is what level of support should Trump's 2024 campaign want to see among GOP voters in Iowa? There is a game of expectations in presidential primaries, just as there is with quarterly earnings or economic data.
“The 50% threshold is critical to him,” said Jim Ellis, president of the election analysis firm Ellis Insight and a former GOP congressional aide. He added: “Most polls indicate that he can reach or exceed that, and I think he needs to.” If he does, it will give him good momentum to continue the rest of the way.
Ellis added that getting support in the low 40s “could be a warning sign” for Trump, but that's unlikely.
The 45th president has 53% support in Iowa polls, according to the RealClearPolitics moving average as of Friday. DeSantis, whose campaign has bet heavily on Iowa, ranked second in the RCP's average of polls in Iowa as of last week. Haley is now in second place with 18% approval, ahead of DeSantis who has 16%.
In New Hampshire, which is scheduled to hold its Republican primary on January 23, Trump has 44% support, compared to 29% for Haley, and 11% for former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie – who recently dropped out of the race for the White House – – and 7% for DeSantis.
Related: Christie withdraws from the 2024 GOP presidential race, a move that could help Haley take on Trump in New Hampshire
Chris Krueger, an analyst at TD Cowen Washington Research Group, noted that Trump is trying to become the first non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Krueger provided the chart below that shows how the Hawkeye State has often not been kind to the candidate who becomes the GOP nominee.
Krueger said in a recent report that if Haley finishes second to Trump in Iowa, ahead of DeSantis, that would give her momentum going into New Hampshire, where she may be able to pull off an upset win. The Granite State is considered a “prime location for a potential Trump ambush” because Haley has been endorsed by popular GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, and the open structure of the primary allows Democrats and independents to vote in it.
Haley may then maintain her momentum in her home state, South Carolina, in the Feb. 23 primary, as well as in the Super Tuesday races on March 5, but overall that's a “risky” path, the TD Cowen analyst said. “It is possible, but unlikely,” he wrote.
Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics put Trump's chances of winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination at 74%, while Haley's odds are at 15% and DeSantis's is at 5%.
In South Carolina, the former president had 52% support, according to the RCP's moving average, followed by 22% for Haley, the state's former governor, and 11% for DeSantis.
Related: How did betting markets go wrong in the 2022 midterm elections?
When Trump Might Win the Nomination
When can the front-runner end the nomination battle and move on to the general election fight against President Joe Biden?
Wolfe Research provided an assessment of this question as shown in the chart below. The chart shows “the cumulative percentage of delegates awarded as the nomination calendar continues, along with the approximate ballpark that Trump's delegate count might track if he wins about 70% of delegates, representing a combination of winner-take-all wins and victories,” Tobin Marcus said. “Narrow majorities or strong pluralities in states where Haley is doing well,” Wolff’s head of politics and politics.
“On this path, even if Haley and/or DeSantis try to move forward rather than withdraw, Trump will officially win the nomination by early April, and the writing will be on the wall by early March,” Marcus added. “Note that this puts him on track to win the nomination before a verdict is handed down in any of his criminal trials.”
Republican presidential candidates other than Trump may continue campaigning due to the former president's legal troubles.
“There is an incentive to stay in the race because of the possibility of Trump being convicted of a criminal offense,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia.
“It's not just what voters in Iowa and New Hampshire think. It's also what jurors in various courtrooms across the country think.
The former president's GOP rivals are “hoping for a Hail Mary — some dramatic change in circumstances — that allows you to win support that is now largely locked in Trump's favor,” Farnsworth told MarketWatch.
Trump faces charges in Washington, DC, and Fulton County, Georgia, in election interference cases, and was also charged last year in a bribery money case and a secret documents case. He has denied any wrongdoing and said the accusations are politically motivated, and many Republican primary voters share his views and rally around him.
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Economic plans from DeSantis, Haley and Trump
In his economic plan, DeSantis relied heavily on XLE energy policy to address inflation, promised to rein in spending and criticized the Trump administration's spending.
Haley's economic proposals include raising the Social Security retirement age but only for young people just entering the system, along with eliminating the federal RB00 tax on gasoline.
Trump's ideas for a second term include imposing a 10% tariff on all imports, making another attempt to end Obamacare XLV and tackling student debt by launching a free online college called American Academy.
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