The season is not being saved by the vets, so what can Dennis Gates do as he waits for reinforcements?
Yesterday, Mizzou lost at home for the fourth time this season to South Carolina. They lost for the sixth time in seven games, and haven't beaten a top opponent since Caleb Grill was still in the lineup.
This is, by all accounts, a difficult season. Missouri State is now 8-8, and for the first time since Dennis Gates was handed the reins nearly two years ago, there is some disagreement among commentators about Mizzou basketball, whether it's deserved or not.
I get it, this didn't go as we hoped. There were some assumptions that the Jets were a wizard before the season, and that Mizzou would return to basketball with a snap of his fingers. But one thing we've learned so far is that Gates is not infallible, just like the rest of us. He's a human being, trying to run a basketball program. It does so in a league that includes a fair number of schools that also care about basketball and have hired coaches who believe they can win at a high level.
Gates now faces the realization that Missouri is not a quick fix. It is a proud program with a long history but one that is as full of struggles as successes over the past 25 years. Despite the many victories in the 2022-2023 season, the path to long-term success and a big win in Colombia would have involved laying down a deeper set of roots. It consists of taking the necessary steps towards building more than a list, but building a sustainable program.
I think what the Jets were trying to do was give their experienced players the opportunity to salvage their season. The roster is divided, part with a large number of experienced players and part with very talented youngsters. The last three games the minutes have leaned heavily towards experience.
For context, Nick Honor played in 139 college basketball games during his career.
- Noah Carter, 129
- John Tonge, 126
- Connor Vanover, 116
- Shawn East II, 104
- Jesus Carralero Martin 84
- Tamar Bates, 83
- Aidan Shaw, 43
- Anthony Robinson II, 15
Meanwhile, the players we think we want to see more of (Trent Pierce and Jordan Butler) combined to play 27 games. Robinson is seeing more minutes because the Jets know they need to get East and Honor a few minutes off the floor. But other than that, more than 75 percent of yesterday's minutes went to players who are in their final season of college basketball. I can't say that for sure because I'm not in the Jets' mind, but that sounds to me like he's saying to the seniors: “Here, go save your senior season.”
I was in the position of being a college-age player playing basketball. There is no sense of end until you are at the end. Even midway through last season, it didn't seem that way. The sense of urgency is only in the next play or possession, which throughout your life has been an endless series. But as the finish line approached, Gates gave his men the chance to make it worth it.
It doesn't really look like they will either. Since the start of conference play, Trent Pierce has played 2 minutes, Jordan Butler has played 6 minutes, and Robinson has played 12 minutes. That's 18 minutes total.
At some point, hopefully soon, the Jets will need to make a decision that it's not going to happen this season with this group the way they are playing. They simply don't score the ball efficiently enough to play defense as poorly as they do. They don't force turnovers like they did last year but they rebound in much the same way. They are 8 points per 100 possessions worse on offense while only 2 points per 100 possessions better on defense, according to KenPom. Two-point shooting is worse, three-point shooting is worse, free throw shooting is better but they get to the line less often which is worse.
We've seen quite a few veterans on this list and I've relied on them heavily lately. He's gotten Mizzou to this point in the season where he's 8-8 and 105th in KenPom, and will likely be lower in the net once he's updated today.
You have enough lineup and player data at this point to know what you're getting when you subtract certain players. We know who this team is at this point.
They are not good enough to make a real impact this season.
There is a way you can play with the younger players more, without kicking completely in the season. Obviously Shaun East needs to play a lot, Nick Honor and Noah Carter may be a little exposed but should still play a lot. I think John Tongi deserves more looks because he looks healthier, or at least more confident. And there's no realistic way you can play with younger players for 35 minutes every night… but you can play with them.
I think this is what we are moving towards, or at least we need to move towards.
I don't think Gates is a puppet and does this to boost his ego. Although college coaches are susceptible to that last part. He knows what works and what doesn't. The rebounding maneuver works if you can force turnovers, but he doesn't have the guards who can force enough turnovers to make the rebound successful. Three-point shooting works at a high volume if you can create a clean look. But he doesn't have players playing at the same pace he did last year, and the half of the pitch is struggling without a few players who can produce clean looks on their own. The East is at its best this year, even better in the medium term. So the edge looks like the three dots look has been reduced.
This roster doesn't fit what the Jets want, so he needs to start building for the future. A future that includes Jordan Butler and Trent Pierce. It involves Aidan Shaw and Tamar Bates. It includes Anthony Robinson, as well as Anwar Boateng, Marcus Allen, and others. Help is coming, but the Gates need to invest in that help sooner rather than later. Even at the expense of what remains on the table this season.
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