Voters in about 40 countries, including eight of the ten most populous countries, are scheduled to hold elections this year. The stakes have never been higher.
Countries that will hold national elections in 2024 include India, the world's largest country, and Indonesia, the largest Muslim country, as well as Taiwan, Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan, South Africa and Russia (spoiler alert: President Vladimir Putin will win an election organized by the Kremlin). Landslide).
There is no doubt that the most important election of all will be held in the United States in November. Let's start with Congress. Republicans have a very narrow lead in the House of Representatives, while Democrats have a very small lead in the Senate. Both chambers are up for grabs.
As for the great race to occupy the White House, for the first time since 1912, an incumbent president, Joe Biden, is likely to face a former president, Donald Trump, in a grudge match that polls say few Americans want. (In 1912, President William Howard Taft ran against former President Theodore Roosevelt; both he and a fourth candidate lost to New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson.) Only a former president has lost re-election and later regained the White House. That was Grover Cleveland, who overthrew President Benjamin Harrison in 1892.
Right now, polls suggest Trump has an advantage, especially in several swing states that are likely to determine the outcome. But the number one issue for Americans is the economy, with GDP currently growing at 4.9%, unemployment at 3.7%, wages rising faster than inflation, and gasoline below $3 in most parts of the country – not to mention the US stock market (Trump's speech). preferred measure) is near all-time highs – the economic gloom that polls show most Americans may be misplaced.
“The 2024 US election looks more like 2016 than 2020.“
In one key respect, the 2024 US election looks more like 2016 than 2020, as external events could help predict the outcome. In 2016, Brexit – Britain’s vote to leave the European Union – reflected the surge of “populist nationalism” that later manifested itself in Trump’s victory. Populist nationalism appears to be on the rise again in Europe, thanks in large part to an issue that also confounds Americans: immigration. This has been a huge issue in the often left-leaning Netherlands, where recent elections have shown a rightward tilt. Stay tuned for another European election this year, which could lead to gains for far-right anti-immigrant candidates. It could herald the US results next November.
Another economic and political issue that is gaining strength is climate change and its potentially harmful impact on supply chains, inflation, and more.
As with many issues, this split along partisan lines, with far more Biden supporters than Trump supporters calling it important. Climate change is also high on the minds of young voters, who will have to adapt to its consequences. Subsets of climate change — water shortages, drying up farmland — are also one (among many) reasons for migration, by the way.
The cost of Ukraine to Americans
“Millions of American jobs and billions of dollars depend on a stable Europe.“
This fraught election year also involves issues of war and peace. Although the current conflict between Israel and Gaza is tragic, the potential for it to escalate into a broader conflict in the Middle East poses a greater risk that must be contained. A steady hand in the Oval Office of the White House will be essential.
Then there is Russia's fierce war on Ukraine, which is now approaching its third year. Ominously – and to Putin's delight – American support for continued aid to Kiev has declined significantly in the past year, with many Americans questioning the cost and whether events in faraway Ukraine are relevant to long-term American interests.
Related to this question, may I respectfully suggest that those who say support for Ukraine is not a core American interest should look at this issue another way, or specifically the millions of American jobs and billions of dollars that depend on a stable Europe.
For example:
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The United States exported $592 billion worth of goods and services to the European Union in 2022
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About eight million American jobs are directly supported by European companies, according to estimates by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which adds that half of all foreign direct investment in the United States came from Europe in 2022.
These jobs and the wealth they bring thrive on stability and are based – as has been the case since the end of World War II – on shared democratic values and deep geopolitical ties between Americans and their transatlantic allies.
“Taiwan, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping, is watching closely to see whether America is committed to supporting its democratic friends around the world.“
When the United States helps Ukraine defend itself, the Americans are defending it all, and anyone wondering about the price should also consider the longer-term and much greater price that would result from not doing so. Such considerations also apply to other countries threatened by Putin, such as Poland and the small Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
This also applies to other freedom-loving democracies like Taiwan, which is watching closely with Chinese President Xi Jinping to see whether America is committed to supporting its democratic friends around the world — and whether America is determined to maintain the global stability it has helped achieve. . And providing its economic blessings over the past eight decades.
more: Americans feel worse about the economy than they should. This is bad news for Biden.
Plus: Recession in the United States remains a threat. China's Growth Stalls, Other Investment Risks in 2024
