The weather story over the next several days will be warm temperatures. Some records may drop before the week is over.
Tonight and tomorrow: The night will be cloudy and windy with southerly winds of 10-15 mph. Low temperatures will stall in the mid-60s, which is roughly 20 degrees above average for that time of year. While mainly cloudy skies will continue into Mardi Gras, some breaks from the sunshine are also expected, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will continue to blow from the southwest at 10-15 mph with occasional gusts in excess of 20 mph. High temperatures will reach around 81 degrees in Baton Rouge. The warmest Mardi Gras temperature on record in the capital was 83 degrees, met in 1917 and 1932.
the next: Wednesday through Friday will be the three warmest days in the forecast period. Once again, high temperatures will topple into the low 80s on Wednesday. Late in the day, a weak front will approach from the northwest and may attempt to shake off an isolated shower north and west of town, but widespread measurable rain is unlikely. On Thursday and Friday, the sun is expected to rise slightly in the afternoon and high temperatures will rise about 20 degrees above average. At 86 and 85 respectively, Thursday and Friday are expected to tie records set just a year ago. The low overnight temperatures will remain somewhat humid as well, in the mid-60s to highs during the short work week.
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Detailed forecast: A wide, anomalous ridge of high pressure is set to dock over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. This will cause the high and low temperatures to be well above average, and will largely shield the region from regulated systems capable of producing rain. A little fog can develop along the coast, but it will be kept more inland as a low cloud surface because winds of 10 to 15 mph will keep the surface air very mixed. Warming during the day will cause the cloud layer to gradually evaporate, and the sun’s rays will hit high temperatures in the low 80s. A weak upper-level low pressure trough will move into the Plains states on Wednesday but remain far enough west that the instability will likely remain too weak for organized showers and thunderstorms. However, the decline will be strong enough to produce a tight pressure gradient as the surface rises below the ridge in the Gulf to cause somewhat stormy conditions on Wednesday. Continuous numbers may be over 25 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph. The hills may reach their peak intensity and closeness to the local area on Thursday and Friday, leading to near record warmth. It is worth noting that if Baton Rouge reaches 88 degrees, it will achieve the highest temperature ever recorded in the month of February. A stall front may attempt to slide south Thursday night through Friday. While this feature will have a bit of definition left, it could lower dew point temperatures by a few degrees at the weekend. Most likely, the front will wash north of our region and wet conditions and above-average temperatures will continue through the weekend.
– Josh
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