A new analysis of hundreds of thousands of hours of shipping data since 2020 by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that the Indian Ocean is fast becoming one of the largest areas for Chinese oceanic surveys, which are ostensibly civilian in nature but linking… To the Chinese People's Liberation Army and Beijing's Civil Military Integration Program – a national strategic plan to strengthen China's military establishment by acquiring technology and research from civilian groups.
The types of ocean surveys conducted by ships have research applications energy resources and marine environments, but the data collected could also be used for military purposes, analysts say, including how to maneuver and conceal submarines during conflict.
The CSIS report found that of the 13 ships conducting the bulk of survey and research activities in the Indian Ocean since 2020, all of them had links to the Chinese military – including organizational links with the People's Liberation Army – They showed suspicious behavior including docking at Chinese military ports or temporarily turning off tracking devices.
“The Indian Ocean is critical to China’s strategic and economic interests, as well as its geopolitical competition with India,” said Matthew Funayul, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who worked on the report. “Beijing is serious about creating a blue-water navy that will be active in the Indian Ocean, and blurring the lines between its research ecosystem and its national security apparatus will help it get there.”
China maintains the world's largest fleet of civilian research ships, and the CSIS report said that at least 80% of 64 of these ships operating globally since 2020 showed “warning indicators” that their work is linked to military targets. More than half of those suspicious vessels operate in the South China Sea, but their increasing presence in the Indian Ocean has also raised tensions.
Last week, Sri Lanka announced a moratorium on Chinese research vessels entering its waters under what analysts say is intense pressure from India. New Delhi has expressed concerns that research ships – some of which were previously docked in Sri Lanka – are being used to monitor waters and facilities in India's sphere of influence. Sri Lanka, which received nearly $12 billion in Chinese loans between 2000 and 2020, has struggled to balance the competing demands of Beijing and New Delhi, analysts say.
India has expressed its displeasure to Sri Lanka; Some of these ships are very close to Indian territory and Indian interests, said Abhijit Singh, a former Indian Navy officer and senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation. He added: “In general, this is the real fear, that China will develop its combat capability by studying the environment in these waters.”“.
The Chinese embassy in India did not respond to a request for comment.
Against the backdrop of China's growing military presence, the Biden administration has sought to tighten security ties with India in recent years, including boosting activity in the Quad — a group including India, Japan, Australia and the United States focused on security and economic interests. In the Indo-Pacific region.
More recently, the White House has sought to show that its ties with New Delhi remain strong, despite a row over an attempted assassination of a Sikh separatist by an Indian civil servant in the United States. Soil. Last month, US Deputy National Security Advisor John Viner led a delegation to India to strengthen partnerships in the field of technology.
Much attention on China's growing military presence in the Indo-Pacific region has focused on its massive fleet of naval ships and increasingly assertive aircraft maneuvers. Near Taiwan. However, beneath the oceans, Beijing is also expanding a less visible network of submarine defense systems and ocean surveillance equipment that will be crucial in shoring up its sea defenses and protecting supply routes in the event of war.
The Indian Ocean is a waterway critical to Beijing's interests, and in recent years it has built or expanded facilities from Djibouti to Pakistan. While China has made efforts to supplement its ocean supply line with land-based alternatives in recent years, a significant amount of its crude oil and natural gas supplies still need to travel from Africa and the Middle East through the Indian Ocean, including the Strait of Malacca. The strait connecting the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea between Indonesia and Malaysia.
“Some call this the weak point of China's strategic interests, simply because if war breaks out in Taiwan, given that the Indian Ocean is located at a great distance from Chinese shores, it is easy to disrupt China's energy security supply in the Indian Ocean, and then all the war–The ability to make may stop“,” Colin Koh said, Senior Fellow at S. Rajaratnam International Studies Center in Singapore.
China's submarine fleet is growing rapidly. Last year, in an annual report on China's military power, the Pentagon said Beijing now possesses about 60 submarines, including 12 nuclear-powered submarines, and expects the total number of Chinese submarines to rise to 80 by 2035. Some of these ships they have already Conquests in the Indian Ocean.
Last year, the US, Britain and Australia revealed plans to supply Canberra with their own nuclear-powered submarines as part of a landmark agreement called AUKUS, aimed at countering China's growing presence in the region.
“If you're serious about wanting to conduct submarine operations in the Indian Ocean, you have to have a fairly good knowledge of not only the seafloor, but also the currents, the stratification and the salinity… said David Brewster, a senior research fellow at the National Security College at the Australian National University. “You're in a submarine.”
China is not alone in deploying research vessels in the oceans, but the murky relationships between its military, civilian and academic groups have raised suspicions that data collected in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere globally could have a dual impact.–Use applications. In some cases, the relationship between missions and China's national security objectives is clarified.
In 2020, Chinese research survey ship Xiang Yang Hong 06 traveled more than 6,000 miles Over the course of 110 days, he surveyed vast areas of the Indian Ocean. During that period, it deployed underwater gliders and buoys — devices to capture complex data about the marine environment — as part of a national project called “Two Oceans, One Sea,” which, according to descriptions published by Chinese government research groups, is designed to promote progress. Strategic needs including “security and military activities.”
And in October 2023, another research ship, Xi'an 06, He conducted four–Monthly mission in the eastern Indian Ocean. The ship was operated by the South China Sea Institute of Oceanography, an institute that has provided technical support for Beijing's military expansion in the South China Sea.
Analysts say the behavior of ships in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere gives insight into their affiliation with military groups. “Some indicators could fill in the gaps in our knowledge. If a research ship is owned and operated by a state group with close ties to the Chinese military, and that ship is making regular port calls at offshore facilities, that's a red flag,” CSIS's Funaioli said. “If a ship regularly darkens before entering another country’s exclusive economic zone, this is another red flag.”
The Pentagon has taken note of the People's Liberation Army's increasing naval presence in the Indian Ocean, including its expanded submarine activities. “The PLAN has also deployed submarines in the Indian Ocean, which demonstrates its increasing familiarity with that region and underscores [People’s Republic of China’s] Interest in protection [sea lines of communication] Beyond the South China Sea,” she said in her 2023 plan Military report on China
