Cryptocurrency market participants bet big money on the billion-dollar protocol which will then give them token drops – a practice that often brings users thousands of dollars worth of new assets.
“Airdrop by June 30th?” The market on Polymarket has received $400,000 worth of bets so far. While this may seem small, it is a large number for a cryptocurrency forecasting platform, excluding the US presidential election market (which attracted over $105 million, dwarfing previous records for the entire sector).
In operation there are 23 different networks, platforms and second layers, each of which has been active for at least two months with useful user activity.
Four of them – Solana NFT Marketplace Tensor, real estate exchange Parcl, derivatives platform Drift, and repossession platform Swell – have already confirmed a downturn, delivering gains of up to 80% for speculators who have been placing bets since February.
All eyes are now on prestigious platforms such as Layer 2s Blast and Base, recovery tool Eigenlayer, multi-chain network LayerZero, and social finance app Friend.Tech.
Nearly $100,000 has been bet on whether LayerZero will drop a token by the end of April. Yes shares are trading at 2 cents, which means the market believes there is only a 2% chance of this happening. Each share pays $1 if the prediction turns out to be correct.
LayerZero, which connects 50 blockchains using its network, has done just that Pre-confirmed airdrop plans Sometime in the first half of 2024, but there have been few details since then.
Blast and Friend.Tech have raised just over $30,000 in bets — likely based on predictions from their point programs, which reward an on-screen numerical value to users based on platform activity, with the loose promise that they will eventually receive tokens.
However, Eigenlayer had the most mindshare. Over $55,000 are betting on whether the exchange will release a token before June 30 on the public drop market, with a 66% probability. The breakout market ending on April 30 has attracted more money – $66,000 – but with only a 17% chance of an airdrop.
Don't want to bet on when? Betting on how much: a Much smaller market It bets on the expected valuation of Eigenlayer after its token launch, with scenarios ranging from no token launch to a $40 billion market cap.
The second layer is secondary networks or infrastructure built on top of a main blockchain, such as Ethereum, to help with scalability and speed. Repossession is one of the most important crypto sectors that emerged in a bear market; It is basically a way to run ether holdings in different protocols as well as the main Ethereum blockchains.
The value locked on platforms like EigenLayer has risen to more than $13 billion in just nine months, Show datamainly supported by slightly higher interest on deposits compared to traditional ETH (more than 5%, compared to 3.3% on Lido) as well as the attractiveness of a future token drop.
It's easy to see why airdrops are a popular topic in prediction markets. They represent free money, after all. If investors have an idea of which protocols are most likely to airdrop participants in a given time frame, and which do not, it can inform their decisions about where to invest money.
While the sun did not I managed to fry eggs On the sidewalks (so far), there's a forecast market betting that last month was the hottest March in recorded history.
The $212,000 bet will be settled on May 1 if the Global Land and Ocean Temperature Index data for March 2024 shows an increase of 1.37 degrees Celsius or more when it is released. Speculators had placed odds of 72% as of Monday, modeling the data using land and sea surface areas.
Wall Street powerhouse Susquehanna International Group is launching a trading desk focused on “event contracts,” hoping to attract Wall Street investors interested in betting on things other than traditional financial assets.
The Company will use the US-regulated Kalshi platform to place and settle bets, as stipulated Bloomberg. Most bets on Kalshi are aimed at retail traders and capped at $25,000, but the company recently got the green light to allow larger investors to bet up to $7 million.
Calci is currently locked in a legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over whether people will be allowed to bet on the US election.
