Analyst Benjamin Coyne offers his predictions for Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market over the next month.
Cowen tells his 796,000 YouTube subscribers in a new video that he believes “April is going to be a very interesting month” for the cryptocurrency industry.
“I expect a lot of volatility in April especially as altcoin/Bitcoin pairs start to pull back, especially as Bitcoin dominance likely starts to emerge.”
Bitcoin is trading at $70,083 at the time of writing.
According to Cowen, market sentiment will turn bearish if Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), which measures Bitcoin's share in cryptocurrency markets, rises by just over five percentage points from the current level.
In a bearish environment, a rise in BTC.D indicates that altcoins are losing value faster than Bitcoin.
“We're getting pretty close. The range here that we're looking at is 55.3%. So above 55.3% could be a warning sign. This could be a risk aversion signal for the summer. That's what I'll be looking at in the summer months.
Bitcoin's dominance level stands at 49.6% at the time of writing.
Whether Bitcoin peaks early during this cycle (the peak translated to the left) or peaks more than a year after the halving (the peak of the normal cycle) will likely be determined by US monetary policy, the widely followed analyst says.
“Whether it's a normal cycle peak or a peak translated to the left will likely depend on what happens in the fourth quarter (Q4) of this year. That's my view. If in Q4 Bitcoin collapses into a recession-like environment as the unemployment rate rises… Sort of…if that happens and we get some kind of mild recession and then the Fed starts printing again, why don't we have another kind of recession rally in 2025?
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