A widely followed cryptocurrency analyst warns that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall further ahead of next month's halving event when miner rewards are cut in half.
Cryptocurrency trader with the alias Rekt Capital Tells His 433,000 followers on social media platform
“It has been two days since Bitcoin officially entered the 'danger zone' (orange) where historical pre-halving corrections began. Historically, Bitcoin has conducted pre-halving corrections 14 to 28 days before the halving. Currently, Bitcoin is about It is 26 days away from the halving and has fallen approximately -18% since last week.
It is uncertain whether the bottom of the correction has already been reached or not. But what is clear is that Bitcoin has recently entered the “danger zone” time window. Technically, there is still time for further decline.
Merchant He says Bitcoin's price pattern shows similarities to the 2016 cycle, which could indicate a deeper decline before the halving event.
“In 2016, Bitcoin conducted a pre-halving correction about 28 days before the halving. In 2024, Bitcoin conducted a pre-halving correction about 32 days before the halving. Interestingly, when Bitcoin began its pre-halving decline in 2016, the price initially produced a long bearish wick before falling further.
Recently, Bitcoin also produced a long bearish wick on the pre-halving correction. Bitcoin will need to continue to maintain these current high levels to avoid a fate like 2016 where the initial reaction was strong but short-lived.
The merchant as well Forecasting When Bitcoin could reach the peak of the current bull market cycle.
“When could Bitcoin peak in this bull market? Bitcoin tends to peak in a bull market 266-315 days after breaking its all-time high. Bitcoin broke its all-time high last week. Therefore a peak may occur “The next bull market is in 266-315 days. That's late November 2024 or late January 2025.”
However, the trader says Bitcoin historically takes longer to peak each cycle, which could push the peak of the current bull market to December 2024 or mid-February 2025.
“Historically, the number of days Bitcoin has spent beyond all-time highs has increased by about 14 days to 35 days…
If we add 14-35 days to the bull market's initial peak range of 266-315 days, this brings the total to 280-350 days. This, in turn, could push the peak of the Bitcoin bull market to mid-December 2024 or mid-February 2025.
Bitcoin is trading at $65,410 at the time of writing, down over 3% in the past 24 hours.
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