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An early glimpse at the climate outlook for next summer shows that most of the low 48s will continue a streak of well-above-average temperatures and precipitation that will be hit or miss except in the Northeast.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released its updated seasonal outlook Thursday that showed regions are likely to see above-normal, near-normal, and below-normal temperatures and precipitation.
“While El Niño conditions persist with above-average tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the total subsurface ocean heat content anomaly across the equatorial Pacific has declined to near zero, reducing “Indicates an imminent transition to neutral El Niño conditions,” forecasters at NOAA stated.
Further complicating the forecast is the decline of El Niño, but like previous events, extreme heat is likely to persist beyond the grip of the global climate advantage.
The combination of weather and temperature patterns means the I-95 corridor could be prepared for a very warm summer where heat waves will be common.
NOAA Summer Temperature Forecast (NOAA)
The outlook is much different than in 2023 when the region experienced its 35th warmest summer on record.
Other areas that could be vulnerable to seeing higher than normal temperatures include the Southwest and Pacific Northwest.
The only part of the country that could see near-average temperatures is the upper Midwest, which represents a reversal of the winter pattern when the region saw some of its warmest anomalies.
El Niño appears to be on the verge of a rapid collapse
Average temperatures observed from December 1, 2023 to February 14, 2024 (Southeast Regional Climate Center/FOX Weather)
Precipitation can hold the key to how active the weather is
Less than four months before climatic summer begins, large areas of the Southwest, Plains, and Northwest are experiencing drought conditions, and if there is no relief during the spring, don't expect much change during the summer.
NOAA's precipitation forecasts for June, July and August showed that most states west of the Mississippi River are experiencing a drier than average summer, with the Northeast seeing much more precipitation than normal.
The forecast is fairly similar to last year's results, with heavy rains in the Northeast and dry Pacific Northwest.
NOAA precipitation forecast for summer 2024 (NOAA)
Dry weather in the heart of North America has caused historic wildfires in Canada, a scenario that could be repeated, especially with less snowfall during the winter.
The North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Forecast warns that some fires from the record 45.7 million-acre season are still burning and could spark a resurgence in 2024.
Natural Resources Canada is expected to release more data after its seasonal outlook begins on March 1, but all signs point to the possibility of more smoky skies downwind.
North American Drought Monitor (Fox Weather)
Another not-so-notable thing from the summer forecast is the lack of any type of enhanced precipitation over the Southeast.
Typically, during active hurricane seasons, the area is highlighted as being at risk for tropical rainfall, which can occur as early as June 1.
With most of the region expected to see normal amounts of rain and thunderstorms, this indicates that forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) believe the Southeast may not be in the target area for much early tropical season development.
The months of June, July, and August typically account for about 43% of total tropical cyclone activity, which means a slow start to the hurricane year doesn't indicate that the U.S. coast will be clear during the heart of the season.
This graph shows the amount of tropical cyclone activity, in terms of named storms and hurricanes, that occurs in the Atlantic Basin on each calendar day between May 1 and December 31. Specifically, it shows the number of hurricanes (yellow area) and combined storms and hurricanes (red area) that occur on each calendar day over a 100-year period. The graph is based on data from the 77-year period from 1944 to 2020 (starting at the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era) but normalized to 100 years. The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin runs from June 1 to November 30, but tropical cyclone activity sometimes occurs before and after these dates, respectively. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. (National Hurricane Center/NOAA)
NOAA's forecast for spring shows how a dying El Nino could bring heat to a large swath of us
Unusual expectations for the decline of the El Niño phenomenon
If the predictions are confirmed, the summer maps could challenge records set in 1936 and 2021 for the warmest summers over the past 130 years.
Both seasons are tied for the warmest June-August periods in U.S. history, with an average anomaly of 2.60 degrees Fahrenheit, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Both years were not El Niño-dominated, which raises a red flag for the type of summer the United States faces in 2024.
During the demise of past significant El Niño events, summers ranked as the ninth and twenty-sixth warmest on record.
Predicting widespread and potentially record-breaking warming would make the current El Niño unparalleled and give greater credence to climate change as playing a more prominent role in global weather than has been recognized.
The extreme warmth is not unexpected, with the UK's National Met Office previously calling for global temperatures in 2024 to end up between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above average.
If the forecast is accurate, it will break last year's annual record of about 1.18 degrees Celsius above normal.
“The forecast is in line with the ongoing global warming trend of 0.2°C per decade, and reinforced by the significant El Niño event. We therefore expect another two years of record global temperatures in a row, for the first time,” Dr Nick Dunston, a climate scientist at the Met Office, said in a statement. Previous: “In time, we expect a reasonable chance of the year temporarily exceeding 1.5°C.”
