Hello
today: cloudy. Scattered rain in the early morning, then scattered rain in the late morning and afternoon. Highs are around 78 near shore to 62 to 67 at 4,000 feet. Winds are northerly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour. The chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tonight: cloudy. Several rain showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Low temperatures range from 62 to 67 near shore to about 51 at 4,000 feet elevation. Winds are northerly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour. The chance of rain is 80 percent.
Sunday: cloudy. Scattered rain in the morning, then scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are around 78 near shore to 62 to 67 at 4,000 feet. Winds are northeasterly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour. The chance of rain is 70 percent.
KONA
today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers in the morning and afternoon hours. Highs are about 80 near shore to about 63 near 5,000 feet. Winds are southwesterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour. 40 percent chance of rain.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows from 66 to 72 near shore to about 52 near 5,000 feet. Light wind. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 80 near shore to about 63 near 5,000 feet. Light wind. 40 percent chance of rain.
water
today: Mostly cloudy. windy. Scattered rain in the early morning, then scattered rain in the late morning and afternoon. Highs are around 76 near shore to 63 to 72 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly 10 to 30 knots. The chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tonight: windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows are around 64 near shore to 52 to 59 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly 10 to 30 knots. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. windy. Scattered rain in the morning, then scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are around 76 near shore to 63 to 72 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly 10 to 30 knots. The chance of rain is 70 percent.
Koala
today: Mostly cloudy. windy. Scattered rain in the early morning, then scattered rain in the late morning and afternoon. Highs are around 76 near shore to 63 to 72 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly 10 to 30 knots. The chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tonight: windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows are around 64 near shore to 52 to 59 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly 10 to 30 knots. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. windy. Scattered rain in the morning, then scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near shore to 63 to 72 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly 10 to 30 knots. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
South of the Big Island
today: Mostly cloudy. windy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs are about 81 near shore to about 67 near 5,000 feet. Winds are easterly 10 to 30 knots. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. windy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows are around 67 near shore to around 51 near 5,000 feet. Winds are northeasterly from 10 to 30 knots. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny. windy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs are about 81 near shore to about 67 near 5,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of up to 30 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Bona
today: cloudy. Scattered rain in the early morning, then scattered rain in the late morning and afternoon. Highs are around 78 near shore to 62 to 67 at 4,000 feet. Winds are northerly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour. The chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tonight: cloudy. Several rain showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Low temperatures range from 62 to 67 near shore to about 51 at 4,000 feet elevation. Winds are northerly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour. The chance of rain is 80 percent.
Sunday: cloudy. Scattered rain in the morning, then scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are around 78 near shore to 62 to 67 at 4,000 feet. Winds are northeasterly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour. The chance of rain is 70 percent.
Wekoloa
today: Mostly cloudy. windy. Highs are about 82 near shore to 64 to 69 above 4,000 feet. Winds are northeasterly up to 30 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. windy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows range from 69 near shore to 48 to 55 above 4,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of up to 30 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny. windy. Highs are about 82 near shore to 64 to 69 above 4,000 feet. Winds are northeasterly up to 30 mph.
summary
Strong and gusty easterly trade winds will continue into Monday, with showers favoring windward and mocha locations as pockets of moisture move in. Some rain will move into the leeward areas of the smaller islands periodically with strong winds, mostly overnight through the morning. High clouds accompanying an overhead disturbance west of the state will support a mostly cloudy atmosphere during the weekend. Trade winds are likely to be disrupted from Tuesday into mid-week, followed by a cold front advancing across the island chain from Wednesday into Thursday. Fresh northerly winds and drier conditions will follow the front.
discussion
Guidance remains good through the weekend and envisions continued stormy easterly trade due to strong high pressure centered north of the islands. Wind gusts are expected to reach 30 mph with gusts of about 50 mph above and below the island terrain in the windiest locations on Maui County and the Big Island. As a result, a wind warning is in effect and has been extended until Sunday. Rain will favor windswept/mocha areas, especially during the night through the morning hours as areas of humidity move in. Water vapor images showed a lot of mid- to upper-level moisture pooling toward the north due to the upper low to the west-southwest of this state, which supports high clouds rolling over the islands. The guidelines are well adapted to this current pattern and are not showing any significant changes over the weekend.
Extended guidance remains in good agreement and shows a shift in pattern early next week, featuring a cold front approaching from the northwest and the aforementioned upper low to the west and southwest advancing eastward over the islands. A breezy easterly trade will continue Monday, then begin to ease and shift from the southeast Monday night into Tuesday as the ridge weakens as the cold front approaches – likely enough to establish a brief land/sea breeze system Tuesday night into Wednesday. Although high clouds will begin to shift eastward Monday into Tuesday as the upper low drifts eastward into the region, increased associated instability coupled with daytime heat and sufficient moisture may be enough to fuel locally heavy showers. As this upper low rises to the northeast and stages with the northerly current on Wednesday, rain chances will remain as the cold front and accompanying upper trough approaches the region from the northwest. Although uncertainty remains high so far in the forecast, the guidance depicts this front advancing down the island chain with breezy northerly winds/drier air following through the second half of the week.
airline
The upstate high will bring strong, gusty movements from the east to the northeast through Sunday. Rainfall included in this flow will bring periods of MVFR conditions, with short IFR conditions possible in heavy rainfall. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at TAF locations.
AIRMET Sierra Mountain Blocking remains in effect to the north across eastern portions of Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. This AIRMET is likely to continue until Sunday.
AIRMET Tango for locally moderate to severe disturbances over and southwest of the Island Mountains below 8,000 feet elevation remains in effect. This AIRMET is likely to continue until Sunday.
AIRMET Tango for moderate disturbances between FL200 and FL450 remains in effect on all islands. This AIRMET will continue until today.
Severe turbulence is also expected northeast of Kauai between FL240 and FL380 as a subtropical jet stream moves away from the area. See SIGMET November series.
Navy
A large area of strong high pressure centered northwest of the islands will move steadily eastward through Tuesday. A narrow pressure gradient downstream and across the islands will maintain fresh to strong trade winds through the weekend. A storm warning remains in effect for canals around Maui County and the Big Island through Sunday when winds will often achieve gale force. A small boat advisory also remains in effect for remaining waters through Sunday afternoon. The winds will gradually ease at the beginning of the week and deviate towards the east and southeast in the middle of the week as the high rises to the east and a front approaches from the northwest. The front is scheduled to pass through local waters Wednesday into Thursday as moderate to fresh north to northeast winds fill in the wake of the front.
Generally strong trades will continue to generate rough, choppy surf along east-facing beaches over the weekend with a gradual decline at the start of the week as a result of weakening easterly winds. A mid-period pre-dawn rise in the northwesterly swell occurs in the far northwesterly buoys. Therefore, north-west facing beach waves will be high today, with this medium-sized wave arriving in the northwesterly period (320-330 degrees) until late morning and peaking this afternoon into the evening. Peak wave heights may approach high surf advisory levels along exposed north-facing beaches today. Medium-sized, medium-to-long swells are likely to the north and northwest Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday into Friday of next week. An early-week northwesterly swell (320°) generated by a weakening compressed typhoon will begin east of Japan late Monday and peak on Tuesday. Northwest gusty winds (330-360 degrees) may arrive in the final week from a wider area of gusty winds southwest of the Aleutian Islands and peak next Friday. While the source of origin of the first bulge is a deeper bottom, it is further away and the size of the bulge may be compromised by angular propagation along its long easterly journey. Late-week fetch zone swell storms are more consistent with the island-oriented great circle route. Therefore, this may be the largest of the waves, pushing the waves closer to high surf warning levels as they arrive from a more northerly direction. A small, long-lasting southwesterly swell is likely Sunday into early next week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advice
Wind Advisory until 6pm GMT Sunday for Lanai Moka, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley South, Kipahulu, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast.
Small Boat Advisories until 6pm GMT Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui Leeward County Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Storm Warning until 6pm GMT Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, and Big Island Southeast Waters.
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Data provided by NOAA.gov
