After 60s, thunderstorms with 10 reports of peas to nickels and 0.13-0.78 inches of rain last night, tonight is cloudy (although partly clear in the northwest) with some fog and drizzle.
Temperatures stabilize between 41 and 45 degrees.
Note the record warmth through today south and east of our viewing area:
75….Cleveland, Ohio
75…Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
75…. Dunkirk, New York
73… Rochester, New York
71… Niagara Falls, New York
68…Hamilton, Ontario
68…Massena, New York (US-Canadian border south of Ottawa)
63…Owen Sound, Ontario
Texas also saw some record warmth:
95….Kingsville, Texas
93…Corpus Christi, Texas
92… Seguin, Texas
91….Austin, Texas
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Low clouds and fog dominate the morning through midday the next two days, followed by a calm afternoon with temperatures largely in the 50s.
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Rainfall will move in on Friday morning…after turning cloudy on Thursday night.
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Therefore, one spell of rain accompanied by two storms passes during the morning until around midday. Then we get a break, followed by another round of rain with thunderstorms late Friday afternoon. Finally, the final round of rain will occur Friday night and Saturday morning into midday.
Rainfall of 0.75-1.50 inches (isolated +1.50 inches) is expected.
Whether we see an isolated or marginally intense threat will be determined in part of the viewing area on Friday in the late afternoon and evening by how far north the warm front reaches and whether any sun is possible in the break.
The best extreme risk (slight to enhanced risk scenario) is certainly in the southern United States and perhaps as far north as the lower Ohio Valley, but we will see how far north this isolated extreme risk will reach.
In the viewing area the elevation rose to 53N to 66S. The low 70s are expected in southern Indiana.
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After cold weather over the weekend and two nights of below freezing, we are back in the 70's with strong winds next week.
Rain and storms are possible late Thursday with a marginal risk scenario with a slight risk scenario in the southwest and west. More rain is expected on Friday, with a total of between 0.75 and 1.75.
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More rain and warm weather are expected after that.
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Look below for much below normal temperatures looming upstream by March 22.
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Here come these two waves of cold air with temperatures up to 20 degrees below normal and hard freezing:
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Watch out for the snow falling on the daffodils and blooming magnolias!
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I also think there's a shot of a big late-season Easter egg with a snowstorm from Tennessee to the Carolinas to the Northeast:
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After warming above normal, there appears to be another burst of cold air with temperatures up to 20 degrees below normal in the April 4-8 time frame.
A little snow is also possible (it may just be flurries/snow showers that don't stick, but a freeze is expected).
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4-5 inches of rain is now expected through April 6, which is above normal, so my early thoughts and predictions for a wetter March through early April may come to fruition after all, bucking model trends.
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The temperature recovery begins to move quickly after the third and final harmful cold snap.
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By mid-April, we were back to well above normal and nice and very warm! I initially thought we had a chance to get to 76-80 before the cold came in late March. Now, it may be mid-April before we see very high numbers and we should be well beyond those numbers! We could have 82-87 days in mid-April.
We will likely have a good frost and light freeze only once after the cold snap of April 4-8. It seems reasonable to see 28-32 between April 19-20.
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I still think overall April temperatures (although slightly warmer in mid-April) will run normal to slightly below normal.
I've found that April is generally wetter than normal, but rain should accumulate. That is, being heavier in about 2 to 3 main rounds adds up to 4-5.50 inches of rain. Late April appears drier at this point to allow for timely fieldwork and plantings.
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I still like the idea of a wetter first half of May, but drier later in May to allow the growing season to make very good progress.
It may seem warmer than usual. It will certainly look more like July in two rounds with the possibility of several days at or above 90 degrees.
So, once that corn and soybean crop runs out, and we shut off the water in the first half of May, it should take off. Corn and soybeans planted in late April should be taking off as well, which could be due to flaking soil and sunken spots, after getting wet in early May.
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Although we may see some nice, humid rain in early June, mid-June can become hot and dry. A brief break may occur after that, but I have major concerns regarding July to August.
Extreme heat spikes of 99-104 and lack of precipitation could cause problems.
Unlike last year, rain may not fall at exactly the right times for the viewing area as a whole and temperatures may not drop. Overheating will be a problem.
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We'll see if we can bring the tropical remains of the Gulf of Mexico to our region. This is a possibility, especially from August to September. He could throw us a Hail Mary card for July that we pick up.
It appears to be a very active season in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic Seas due to very warm waters, Atlantic marine heatwaves, TNH+ and a rapidly developing classic La Nina.
In fact, the transition from a strong El Niño and El Nino Modoki 2 to a traditional strong La Niña may be the fastest and most significant of all. There are data dating back to the 19th and 18th centuries AD based on reef and ship records, and even then it may be noted that such a sudden shift has been compared.
We could be in for a traditional strong to very strong La Nina by next winter and spring.
