A new generation of artificial intelligence is poised to turn old assumptions about technology upside down.
For years, people who work in warehouses or fast food restaurants have worried that automation might eliminate their jobs. But new research suggests that generative AI — of the kind used in chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT — will have the biggest impact on white-collar workers with high-paying jobs in industries like banking and technology.
A report published Thursday by the Burning Glass Institute, a nonprofit think tank, and SHRM, formerly the Society for Human Resource Management, stopped short of saying technology will eliminate large numbers of jobs. But it shows that workers need to be better prepared for a future where AI can play an important role in many workplaces that have so far remained largely untouched by technological disruption.
For people in technology, this means they may be building their own AI alternatives.
“There's no doubt that the workers who will be affected the most are those with college degrees, and these are the people who always thought they were safe,” said Matt Siegelman, president of the Burning Glass Institute.
For hundreds of companies, the researchers estimated the share of payroll spending that goes to workers employed in 200 occupations most likely to be affected by generative AI. Many of these jobs are filled by wealthy college graduates, including business analysts, marketing managers, and software developers. Database administrators, project managers, and lawyers.
Firms in finance, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley, have some of the highest percentages of their payrolls likely to be disrupted by generative AI. Not far from technology giants like Google, Microsoft, and Meta.
Making AI do human work could result in significant savings for those companies. The research estimates that banks and some technology companies spend between 60 and 80 percent of their salaries, or more, on workers in professions most likely to be affected by new technology.
The report found that the retail, restaurant and transportation industries are least likely to be affected by generative AI. Companies like Walmart, McDonald's and Delta Air Lines often employ workers without college degrees who perform roles such as assisting customers, stocking shelves, cooking food and handling luggage. They spend less than 20% of their salaries on employees in professions most likely to be affected by generative AI.
The report does not predict potential job losses related to generative AI. The report said that will be up to employers, whether they want to park the savings generated by AI automation or use that money to invest, grow, and add more workers. Most experts expect that AI will mostly change jobs over the next few years rather than eliminate them — although this could change if the technology improves sharply.
Johnny C said: Taylor Jr., CEO of SHRM, said the report highlights the need for increased training to prepare workers to adapt to rapidly arriving technology.
“Businesses and governments will have to invest seriously to get this going,” he said.
The report is the latest entry in a growing field of work trying to forecast the impact of generative AI on the economy and the workplace. Other studies have predicted a surge in economic growth and productivity, automation of activities that add the equivalent of millions of jobs, and time savings of up to 50 percent for routine office tasks and programming tasks.
In its research, the Burning Glass Institute began with estimates of exposure to generative AI by occupation in a widely cited academic paper published last year. It then added its own data sets — including job listings, salary information, government statistics, and company disclosures — to each company's individual accounts. The SHRM report includes a ranking of selected companies. The Burning Glass Institute conducted estimates of the percentage of company spending on salaries for the New York Times.
Manav Raj, co-author of the academic paper relied on by the Burning Glass Institute, said the new research appears to be a credible effort to analyze company-level data. But at this point, he said all studies are just educated guesses.
“A lot of published research generally concludes that this wave of AI has the potential to have a very big impact,” said Mr. Raj, an assistant professor of management at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. “But it will take some time to see what this effect really looks like.”
