Zelensky's inability to reach a political consensus on a mobilization strategy – despite months-long warnings about a severe shortage of qualified troops on the front – has provoked deep divisions in the Verkhovna Rada and more broadly in Ukrainian society. It left the army dependent on a patchwork of recruiting efforts, and sowed panic among men of fighting age, some of whom went into hiding, fearing that given the aid they were being given, they would be conscripted into an ill-equipped army and sent to certain death. Ukraine remains stalled in Washington.
The impasse over how to fill the ranks has faced Zelensky with perhaps the biggest challenge to his leadership since the start of the February 2022 invasion. The lack of a clear mobilization strategy — or even agreement on how many additional troops Ukraine needs — was a factor in Zelensky's dismissal of his top general in February, but the new commander-in-chief , Oleksandr Sirsky, has not provided any new clarity yet.
Sersky has been tasked with reviewing the current armed forces to find more combat-qualified troops, after Zelensky's office recently announced that of a million people mobilized, only about 300,000 fought on the front lines. But nearly a month after his promotion, no one in the military command or the presidential administration had explained where those 700,000 were—or what they were doing.
Ukrainian lawmakers say the lack of a unified message from the president and the military has added to the confusion over next steps.
“I don’t know why Zelensky or his team are still trying to convince society that everything is always fine,” said Solomiya Bobrovska, a lawmaker for Holos, a liberal opposition party. “That's not the case, especially with the military.”
The dwindling number of combat-ready Ukrainian forces now constitutes a strategic crisis, and is at least partly responsible for their recent withdrawal from the eastern city of Avdiivka and surrounding villages, where Ukrainian forces were far outnumbered.
Combat-age civilians must accept that “there is no longer time to sit at home,” said Oleksiy Pzevets, a Defense Ministry adviser on conscription.
“It is very possible that the Russians will get very close very soon if there is no one to stop them,” Bezevets said. He added that in addition to “the shortage of ammunition, weapons, shells, etc., if we have a shortage of personnel, it is a tragedy.”
But after two years of all-out war, the public sense of urgency that brought fresh forces to the battlefield and led to Ukraine's early successes has faded. Many soldiers were injured or exhausted.
Throughout this time, men between the ages of 18 and 60 were prohibited from leaving the country, and men aged 27 and older were eligible for the draft, with some exceptions. Civilians between the ages of 18 and 27 can sign up themselves. Parliament has now spent months hotly debating a draft law that would change the mobilization process and expand the scope of the draft, in part by lowering the eligibility age to 25.
More than 4,000 amendments have been made to the mobilization bill, and some lawmakers see the measure as an attempt by Zelensky to pass the buck to parliament for unpopular decisions.
“It's time to start an adult conversation with society and not be afraid of it,” Bobrovska said. “We are not in 2022, when emotions have taken over.”
Zelensky has long tried to control public messages about the state of war to maintain public morale. He publicly announced the death toll of Ukrainian forces for the first time last weekend, saying 31,000 had been killed since February 2022 — a figure that could not be independently confirmed.
Zelensky also faces growing pessimism at home and abroad about Ukraine's chances of repelling the Russian attack without more help from the United States. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) declined to take up legislation that includes $60 billion in aid to Ukraine.
Volodymyr Aryev, a lawmaker from the opposition European Solidarity party, said: “It is time to have serious talks with society – serious, honest talks and explain what we need to do without any artificial courage.”
Bobrovska supports the proposed changes to the bill that would ensure the demobilization of troops who have already served long periods in front-line positions. In the current situation, “the only way to come back is to get injured or killed,” she said.
“War is mathematics,” she added. “We have to count our resources.”
Aryev voted against an earlier draft of the mobilization bill, which he considered too punitive. He opposes measures such as suspending driver's licenses and seizing the bank assets of citizens who have not registered on the draft. In January, fearing such measures, account holders rushed to withdraw their funds, receiving more than $700 million in one month – the largest withdrawal amount since February 2022.
Arif said the priority should be “ensuring people who will be mobilized for military service that they will not be sent to the front lines without training and without proper equipment. It is something that really scares people and creates a lack of trust.” [in] the government.”
These fears prompt some draft-eligible men to take evasive steps.
A 31-year-old man, whose parents live under Russian occupation in eastern Ukraine, said he was hiding in an apartment in Kiev, fearing that he would be recruited and sent to the front unprepared and ill-equipped. He spoke on condition of anonymity due to concerns for his safety.
In December, while visiting the city of Vinnytsia in central Ukraine, soldiers stopped him on the street and handed him a conscription warrant. He left without visiting the conscription office there, hoping that his case would disappear into a disorganized bureaucratic system.
But a month later, police in Kiev stopped him for a random check. When they searched his name in their database, he saw the word “WANTED” appear in large red letters. Officials in Vinnitsa recorded his non-attendance.
He was ordered to report to the recruitment office the next morning, but he had a panic attack and did not go. – He has no military experience. “You can't imagine someone who is further away from the military or military matters,” he said. “It doesn't really make sense for me to go after you like that.”
In November, the Department of Defense partnered with Lobby
“People first of all want to control their future as much as possible and want to have clarity about what they will do in the army,” said Vladislav Gryzyev, co-founder of Lobby X. While demands for less risky positions have risen, “the challenge is filling combat positions,” Grysiev said.
The 31-year-old in hiding said he had considered applying for a non-combat role, but feared that once he joined the army, he could be transferred to combat duty. For now, he plans to stay inside indefinitely until a lawyer can help solve his case. “It's still better than going there and dying within a week, which is the limit for me I think,” he said.
Yaroslav Yurcheshin, a member of parliament for the Holos party, said lawmakers were looking for an “adequate incentive mechanism” to encourage recruitment, including rewards for the destruction of Russian equipment and new financial benefits for veterans.
“It's a difficult discussion because we have previously mobilized people who have this sense of duty,” Yurczyshyn said. “Now we must motivate our people to serve in the army.”
“The country has a future until the moment there are people who are ready to fight for it and die for it,” said Bezewicz, the Defense Ministry adviser.
He added: “I do not like to die for this, it is better to kill for it.” But despite the existential threat Ukraine faces, many civilians are, he said, “just dust in the wind.”
Kostyantin Khudov and Serhiy Morgunov in Kyiv contributed to this report.
