Warmer and drier winter conditions this year have created certain benefits for ranchers, such as easier winter feeding and easier water supply maintenance. A major advantage of milder conditions is that cold weather stresses on the cow herd are less, making it easier to meet cattle nutrient requirements.
Although this mild weather has been beneficial, there are potential concerns that ranchers need to be aware of and be prepared for this spring, said James Rogers, a forage crop production specialist at North Dakota State University.
“The northern plains are a fragile environment exposed to extreme heat, cold and limited precipitation,” Rogers says. “When these extremes occur, they can lead to system instability with long recovery periods. Given the forecast weather model from the National Weather Service's National Climate Prediction Center, the El Niño effect of warmer and drier weather is expected to continue into the spring.
Forecast models predict that temperatures will continue to be above normal with equal chances of precipitation above or below normal. In 2023, precipitation across North Dakota varied from below normal in the northern tier of the state to normal or above normal in the southern tier of the state. If weather forecast models are correct, the implications for spring could mean one thing for crop farmers and another for ranchers.
For crop growers, higher than normal temperatures may mean earlier planting conditions than in previous years. Potential downsides include early weed emergence and uncertainty about receiving the rainfall needed for crops to grow and sustain.
For ranchers, some other variables can cloud the picture. The first is how to manage pasture and pasture plants before the end of the grazing season. Fall is the time when grassland and pasture plants store energy for spring growth. The basis of forage production is tillage production and growth. If plow production decreases, forage production will be reduced.
A study conducted by NDSU evaluated the effect of fall grazing intensity on forage production the following year. They found that using extreme fall resulted in a 57% reduction in forage production in 2022, and 54% in 2023.
“Severe reductions in pasture and pasture plant use have a negative impact on energy storage, bud set and tiller production, resulting in reduced forage production the following year,” says Rogers.
The second unknown variable: What will spring conditions really be like? If temperatures continue to remain above normal, pasture plants and plants will begin to emerge from dormancy early. If rainfall remains below normal, biomass production may be delayed, meaning spring turnout may also be delayed. On the other hand, spring may arrive late due to late winter storms that will harm ranchers and livestock, as is the case in the spring of 2021 and 2022. Rogers advises ranchers to prepare for either situation and consider whether winter feed supplies are sufficient to last until spring. .
The third variable is the health and condition of the cow herd from now until spring. Calving season is underway, monitoring calf health, cow condition, and herd health and management are all critical between now and the end of the breeding season. Management now affects later reproduction.
“Current weather conditions are unusual for North Dakota, but take into account all the variables, including previous months' weather conditions, past grazing management, current weather and future weather forecasts, and use them to prepare for whatever the Dakota faces.” Rogers advises.
