As for precipitation, we expect above normal amounts of 4 to 6 inches compared to the normal of 3.5 inches. Snowfall should be below the normal 2 inches for the month, but we can't completely rule that out during the short, cold spells of winter.
Forecast models are currently simulating a very warm and very humid first half of the month:
Already, the National Weather Service predicts we could receive nearly half of March's expected precipitation during the first week.
However, around March 15, we may see a shift towards more typical temperatures and less precipitation:
As we approach the second half of the month, atmospheric patterns studied by meteorologists, often referred to using abbreviations, may produce a jet stream formation to support a shift toward colder weather. The map below, showing the weather pattern for the second month with abbreviations labeled, indicates that the jet stream may begin to dip further toward the eastern United States, allowing cold air to leak south.
Here's what these abbreviations mean:
- -EPO, the negative phase of the East Pacific Oscillation, and +PNA, the positive phase of the North American Pacific Oscillation pattern, indicate that the jet stream will take a significant northward journey over Alaska and western North America. This tends to favor mild weather in the west but cooler weather in the east where the jet stream dips southward like a seesaw.
- -AO, negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, and -NAO, negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, indicate the southward displacement of cold air over the high latitudes of central and eastern North America.
The development of these patterns – a possible response to polar vortex disruption – would intensify cold and stormy weather in the eastern United States. Confidence that things will end up exactly this way is low, but realistic models have us leaning toward a cooler second half of the month.
The cold second half of March will be a big change from what we experienced.
The average temperature in Washington last month was 44.4 degrees, or 4.4 degrees above normal, and was the seventh warmest February on record.
Only 1.41 inches of rain and melted snow fell, a deficit of 1.21 inches, marking the driest February 22 on record.
We expected February to be milder than usual, but it was warmer than we expected. We called for the temperature to be 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal (compared to 4.4 actual degrees). Our forecast for 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain was much more than what fell, and our snowfall forecast was also very aggressive. We expected 3 to 6 inches of snow, and only 0.1 inch accumulated.
Over the course of the month, we saw only four colder than normal days:
This month's lowest high temperature in Washington (as measured at Reagan National Airport) — 42 degrees on February 17 — was the warmest on record, surpassing the 41 degrees set in 1998.
Aside from that, only Dallas set record temperatures during the month:
- Dallas' high of 65 ties the record as of 2023.
- Dallas' record low of 48 was the warmest on record, topping 41 degrees in 2020 and 2023.
- Dallas' record low of 47 was the warmest on record, topping 46 degrees in 2009 and 2020.
- Dallas' high of 69 tied a record set in 1977 and 2002.
With two months completed in 2024, we can compare the average temperature and precipitation to previous years. Even with a dry February, a wet January helped the year get off to a wetter than usual start:
Temperatures are noticeably warmer than normal, but not as warm as last year at this time, which was the warmest on record during February:
