Technology experts and the American public share serious concerns about the future of privacy, jobs, politics, democracy, civility and many other aspects of life, according to a new report from Elon University outlining the potential future impact of artificial intelligence.
This report, titled “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040,” finds that both the public and experts believe there is massive disruption on the horizon as AI spreads. Many experts go so far as to say that we will have to reimagine what it means to be human, and that societies must restructure, reinvent, or replace existing institutions and systems. At the same time, they embrace the idea that important benefits will also result from the spread of artificial intelligence.
This is the first report produced by Elon's expanded “Imagining the Digital Future” Center under the leadership of Lee Rainey, who joins the university after a 24-year career in the Internet and Technology Research Directorate at the Pew Research Center. The Center works to discover and widely share a diverse range of opinions, ideas and original research on the impact of digital change, informing important conversations and shaping policy.
The new study combines a national public opinion poll with a survey of hundreds of technology experts, a hallmark of the 48 previous research reports Elon has issued in partnership with the Pew Research Center since 2004.
“This particular two-pronged research on public and elite opinion shows just how disruptive many believe AI will be to fundamentally transform life,” Rennie said. “Both groups expressed concerns about the future of privacy, wealth inequality, politics and elections, job opportunities, the level of civility in society and personal relationships with others. At the same time, there are more optimistic views about AI making life easier, more efficient and safer in some What matters. Almost everyone agrees that this is a pivotal moment for how the future will evolve with artificial intelligence.
Rennie noted that the rapid development of ChatGPT and other AI tools has increased public awareness and caused great concern as well as great optimism about the ways in which AI tools may make life easier, more efficient, and perhaps safer.
“This particular two-pronged investigation into public and elite opinion shows how many believe AI will be destructive to fundamental dimensions of life.”
The public opinion poll is designed to focus on the expected impact of artificial intelligence on a variety of dimensions of personal life and on the structures of society. The separate vote-counting process of more than 300 technology experts provided an opportunity for technology developers, business and policy leaders, researchers, analysts and academics to contribute articles on the potential upcoming impact of AI.
Some envision a future when economies and labor are reformed, when people have personal digital assistants and diminished skills in making their own choices, when deepfakes and artificial intelligence-generated disinformation create alternative definitions of “truth,” and when there are significant advances in medical diagnosis and analysis. treatment.
National public opinion poll
Two-thirds of Americans believe that artificial intelligence could have a negative impact on their personal privacy, and more than half believe there will be negative consequences for their job prospects, according to a national public opinion poll conducted by the center.
These are among the findings of a national public opinion poll sponsored by the Elon Center for Imagining the Digital Future, conducted in partnership with Elon University Polling, and Ipsos, an international marketing research and polling firm.
More than half of Americans expect negative effects on politics and elections, and 40% expect a decline in civility in society. The most positive forecast is the impact of artificial intelligence on healthcare systems and the quality of medical treatment.
There is no prevailing view on the overall impact of AI. When asked how the increasing use of AI will impact people's daily lives, 31% said it would be equally positive and negative; 29% said it would be more negative than positive; 17% say it will be more positive than negative; And 23% say they do not know. In response to a broad question about the ethics of AI, 31% say it is possible to design AI programs so that they can always make decisions in the best interests of people in complex situations, while exactly the same percentage say that is not possible. About 38% say they are not sure.
The survey of 1,021 Americans was conducted October 20-22, 2023, and was designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Margin of error +/- 3.2%.
Compare expert opinions with those of the general public
When answering a similar set of questions, experts agreed with the general public that AI's impact on privacy is the biggest concern. Experts were much more concerned than the public about growing wealth inequality in society, but somewhat less concerned than the public about the impact on employment opportunities.
17th Expert Conference on “The Future of Digital Life”.
In addition to answering quantitative questions, experts wrote thoughtful essay responses describing the challenges and opportunities they see in the digital future. Some have said that we will have to reimagine what it means to be human, and that societies must restructure, reinvent or replace existing institutions and systems. They also expressed concerns that AI could significantly disempower people in the coming years, while at the same time embracing the idea that seemingly miraculous benefits could result from the spread of AI.
Some of the more interesting ideas from experts include:
- A new meaning of life will emerge in a “self-actualizing economy”: the enormous economic efficiencies generated by artificial intelligence that improve work and the way basic infrastructure works will be combined with medical and other scientific advances that will radically change the way How people act and communicate. And take care of each other.
- There will be shifting boundaries between what is human and what is machine: as AI applications become normal and normal, the things that are considered controversial and dangerous will change from year to year.
- Assistive intelligence will be ubiquitous: this will dramatically impact individuals' sense of identity, cognition, and even consciousness itself.
- Personal avatars with “self-sovereign identities” will represent us: individuals will have 3D, realistic avatars to carry out tasks on their behalf using their extensive personal data.
- Digital assistants will have a much greater impact on their personalities than their human counterparts have on themselves: interacting with AI provides their creators with intimate insights about users that can be exploited.
- People will form intimate and meaningful relationships with their robots: some will focus most of their human affection, desires, and attention on digital products.
- “The facts will be modified”: The spread of deepfakes, disinformation, and post-truth content will expand, and large numbers of electronic documents will be edited too late to suit the views of special interests.
- Co-benefits will transform humanity: Applying AI to achieve long-awaited, large-scale economic change will lead to a more equitable and sustainable society that relies less on consumption as a driver of productivity, and instead evaluates productivity based on “metrics of human flourishing.” “
- Creativity will be democratized but may also be homogenized: those who have ideas but not a lot of technical skills will have the tools to create and advance their concepts; This can create a monoculture of output.
- An abundance mentality may replace a scarcity mentality: a sufficient combination of intelligence (via artificial intelligence), matter (via asteroid mining), and energy (from various clean sources) could provide effectively unlimited material abundance and enable humanity to overcome many of the causes of Its need for resources. struggle.
- AI can enable corporate and government transparency and expose hidden operations Now: AI systems to help verify facts and enable critical investigation into government and corporate databases may empower citizens and highlight questionable or questionable practices.
“A significant number of these global experts and analysts have briefly mentioned the significant gains they expect, but have mostly focused their responses on expressing concerns about the potential losses they fear,” said Professor Jana Anderson, founding director of the Elon Center for Imagining the Internet. He has been one of the authors of the Future of Digital Life reports since they began in 2004. “Their concerns are reflected in the five broad themes we found in our analysis of their answers.”
Analysis of expert responses revealed five main themes:
Topic 1 – We will have to reimagine what it means to be human
As AI tools become integrated into most aspects of life, some experts expect the definition of “human,” “person,” or “individual” to change. Among the issues they addressed: What will happen when we start relying on artificial intelligence as equal to or better than humans? How will we react when technology helps us, teaches us, and maybe even shares a laugh? Will the coexistence of humans and artificial intelligence turn into an interesting partnership? Will artificial intelligence become part of our consciousness?
Theme 2 – Societies must restructure, reinvent or replace established systems
These experts urge that societies change long-entrenched institutions and systems – political, economic, social, digital and physical. They believe that there should be major movements towards a more equal distribution of wealth and power. They also argue that the spread of AI requires new multi-stakeholder governance from diverse sectors of society.
Topic 3 – Humanity could be greatly weakened by artificial intelligence
A percentage of these experts focused on the ways in which people's uses of artificial intelligence could reduce human effectiveness and skills. Some worry that it will eliminate critical thinking, reading, decision-making abilities, and personal healthy communication, and lead to more mental health problems. Some said they feared the impact of mass unemployment on people's psychology and behaviors due to the loss of identity, structure and purpose. Some have warned that these factors combined with worsening inequality could lead to violence.
Topic 4 – Don't be afraid of technology; People are the problem and the solution
A large portion of these experts say their primary concern is not that AI will “go rogue.” They mostly worry that advanced artificial intelligence is likely to dramatically magnify risks already evident today due to people's uses and abuses of digital tools. They fear escalating problems associated with extractive capitalism, the intimidation and manipulation tactics of bad actors, and human rights abuses by authoritarian governments.
Topic 5 – Key benefits will arise from artificial intelligence
While most of these experts wrote primarily about the challenges of AI, several described the potential gains that could be seen as AI spreads across society. They expect that most people will enjoy and benefit from the help of AI in all sectors, especially in education, business, research, and medicine/health. They expect this to foster innovation, reshaping and liberating people's use of time.
